Survey for people with and without fuel dilution

[ronranger]

I wonder if their is a difference between owners that use the AUTO/START/STOP feature and ones that turn it off. Thanks for the work put into this survey.

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[Old Red Replacement]

I filled out survey. No question’s about break-in period of engine or oil
brand used. I researched Ford Ranger 2.3 Eco-Boost heavily before buying truck to replace underpowered 98 4.0 Ranger for towing and AC problems.
New 2020 xl, supercab, 4wd, tow package, locker running boards, manufactured 11/20

I changed the factory oil @ 1150 miles, no gas smell, starting to show some color. Added Best Amsoil 5W-30, there filter & 1/3 bottle of there gas pI treatment. Running WaWa 93 octane towing 4400 lb camper, tows perfect [tow mode, WDH, and brake controller] and got 12.5 mpg on 125mile trip to Fl East last on Rt 40. Going 20 mph headwind. Towing reviews and capacity lived up to hype, reviews, expectations.
Oil is so clean hard to see, but may have gone up slightly from 6.2 qts added @ oil change. Leak down from sitting is concern?
Preffered Customer goin to order more oil and change @ 3000 miles, because I can.

 

[AdamHarris]

The rocking side to side of an FX package helps mix up the oil and fuel and burn the fuel off lol.

 

[jsphlynch]

My apologies for the delay since the last post. Busy times here.

I took a look at city vs highway usage in a variety of ways. No matter how I look at it, I see the same thing, so here's the first graph I made:

Zero correlation between the amount of city driving folks are doing and the amount of fuel sticking around in the crankcase. I must admit, this one surprised me.

That same question on the survey also asked about towing. The scatter plot did look a little like there was an effect that is best observed with a breakdown of binary towing vs non-towing, regardless of amount towing reported:

Any difference is relatively minor, but the trend is definitely there. At the very least, towing isn't making things worse.

The bigger surprise was the offroaders:

Recall from my earlier post that trucks with the FX package don't seem to have quite as much dilution. I suspect these two observations are related.

A picture is building that working your truck (driving it further, getting it off the pavement, towing) is what it wants.

 

[Texasota]

My apologies for the delay since the last post. Busy times here.

I took a look at city vs highway usage in a variety of ways. No matter how I look at it, I see the same thing, so here's the first graph I made:

Zero correlation between the amount of city driving folks are doing and the amount of fuel sticking around in the crankcase. I must admit, this one surprised me.

That same question on the survey also asked about towing. The scatter plot did look a little like there was an effect that is best observed with a breakdown of binary towing vs non-towing, regardless of amount towing reported:

Any difference is relatively minor, but the trend is definitely there. At the very least, towing isn't making things worse.

The bigger surprise was the offroaders:

Recall from my earlier post that trucks with the FX package don't seem to have quite as much dilution. I suspect these two observations are related.

A picture is building that working your truck (driving it further, getting it off the pavement, towing) is what it wants.

Towing likely results in increased oil temperatures helping to burn off the fuel in the oil.

 

[jsphlynch]

Before jumping to the next analyzed parameter, I want to extend a thanks to all you folks for taking the time to fill out the survey. I was hoping I'd be able to get at least 20 responses. We're up to 88 responses! Huge thanks to everybody that has participated.

Next question: does fuel octane rating play a role? Here's the data:

For the purposes of this analysis, since I know these definitions are different in different areas of the country, "regular" is 87, "mid" is 88-91, and "Premium" is 92+.

As you can see, there is a slight trend towards lower perceived fuel dilution with higher octane, with the difference being more pronounced in the amount of oil rise. As with most of the parameters I've looked at, there's a lot of variability in the data, so make your own conclusions about whether this effect is real. I could definitely see how differences in combustion and/or computer adjustments to timing could influence fuel dilution, so I'm completely open to this being a real phenomenon. Anybody with fuel dilution who's running 87 want to spend a few extra bucks for a few tanks of premium and report back?

I do wonder if there could be a confounding factor, wherein people who are buying premium are doing so because they work their trucks a little harder (which the previous posts indicate could very well be a factor in dilution). However, I did look back specifically at the towing data, and there's no difference in the prevalence of people reporting towing among the "regular" users versus the higher octanes.

 

[jsphlynch]

I wonder if their is a difference between owners that use the AUTO/START/STOP feature and ones that turn it off. Thanks for the work put into this survey.

Ask and ye shall receive...eventually (again, sorry for the delay)

No clear consistent trend between the two measures. There is a slight apparent decrease in oil rise with increasing rate of ASS deactivation, but since this is not also observed with the odor, and since there is quite a bit of underlying variability, I'm not inclined to read much into this. Maybe there's a slight effect of ASS use, but, if so, it's contribution to the fuel dilution issue is minimal.

And just to make sure it's clear: for the purposes of this question, sometimes/usually/always deactivate refers to the use of the button, whereas "disabled" means the user has some sort of defeat device in use.

 

[jsphlynch]

Ask and ye shall receive...eventually (again, sorry for the delay)

No clear consistent trend between the two measures. There is a slight apparent decrease in oil rise with increasing rate of ASS deactivation, but since this is not also observed with the odor, and since there is quite a bit of underlying variability, I'm not inclined to read much into this. Maybe there's a slight effect of ASS use, but, if so, it's contribution to the fuel dilution issue is minimal.

And just to make sure it's clear: for the purposes of this question, sometimes/usually/always deactivate refers to the use of the button, whereas "disabled" means the user has some sort of defeat device in use.

I tried doing a couple of subgroup analyses to dig into that minor trend observed in the oil rise above. When I limited the analysis to just folks who reported >50% of their driving was city (I figured this is the group that would be most affected by the ASS if there is indeed any effect), the trend completely disappeared. Similarly when I limited the analysis to just folks who reported a commute of 10-25 miles (long enough to ensure ASS would start kicking in, but perhaps not long enough for engine to fully get up to temperature), the trend likewise disappeared.

Since cherry-picking situations that should emphasize any possible effect didn't confirm the earlier observation, I'm even more inclined to believe that ASS is not a problem for us.

 

[Texasota]

I'm even more inclined to believe that ASS is not a problem for us.

???? Well, we do drive Rangers.

 

[jsphlynch]

???? Well, we do drive Rangers.

 

[ronranger]

Ask and ye shall receive...eventually (again, sorry for the delay)

No clear consistent trend between the two measures. There is a slight apparent decrease in oil rise with increasing rate of ASS deactivation, but since this is not also observed with the odor, and since there is quite a bit of underlying variability, I'm not inclined to read much into this. Maybe there's a slight effect of ASS use, but, if so, it's contribution to the fuel dilution issue is minimal.

And just to make sure it's clear: for the purposes of this question, sometimes/usually/always deactivate refers to the use of the button, whereas "disabled" means the user has some sort of defeat device in use.

Thanks for answering my question

 

[VegasRanger]

Good stuff! I currently have 1,800 miles on my Ranger and did the first oil change at 500. I did smell a FAINT bit of gas but nothing crazy. I will be doing another oil change at the 6K mark and will send out a sample for analysis. I use 91 octane, always shut off A/S/S, and my daily commute is 22 miles one day. My truck is mainly used for highway. So should be interesting to see my results. Can't wait.

 

[dondonbabyraptor]

I don't know much about trucks or cars in general, however I am thinking a good portion of owners on these forums mod their trucks is that how the survey demographics ended up? I was wondering if you did data analysis on the items of spirited driving and mods (in relation to tunes specifically) and this fuel dilution problem. By the way, what is your field of studies? Great analyses and the item creation was way better than I was expecting. Of course the most obvious limitation is that the study population may not be as in line with the general public of Ranger owners and of course, the low n, but what can we expect. I think what would be really interesting to see is if there is moderation happening through catch can or oil change frequency, possible moderation analysis with the data? Definitely the FX4 and non-fx4 is not statistically significant in terms of fuel dilution but again, low n, could be way worse or way closer. Would have a lot more power with more respondents.

 

[Cabose-1]

You are welcome. And thank you for doing the survey! Awesome data!
I am one of the few 4x2 owners out there. I tow about 60 to 100 miles a week. And use it off road too. Just no crazy stuff. Regular driving in the country and so on.
But i see no rise in oil, or notice no smell.
Thanks for the data, i will definitely keep an eye on this to see where the study takes you, and us Ranger owners

 

[jsphlynch]

I don't know much about trucks or cars in general, however I am thinking a good portion of owners on these forums mod their trucks is that how the survey demographics ended up?

About 2/3 of the respondents have reported some sort of mod(s), although that includes people who only reported installing a tailgate damper.

I was wondering if you did data analysis on the items of spirited driving and mods (in relation to tunes specifically) and this fuel dilution problem.

This is coming, once I have a little more time. Tunes are one thing I wish I had asked specifically about, but thankfully quite a few people have volunteered that information.

By the way, what is your field of studies?

Life sciences. Not mechanical, but basic analyses like this transcend the scientific fields.

Of course the most obvious limitation is that the study population may not be as in line with the general public of Ranger owners...

Shouldn't need to be. I'm not trying to assess the fuel dilution issue in relation to its prevalence in the general population, but rather I'm trying to assess fuel dilution as it relates to individual variables. Thus, I need representatives of the different variables, not representatives of the general population. I will grant, however, that the non-random sample that responds to this survey may be essentially missing key variables that are present in the general population.

...and of course, the low n, but what can we expect.

Yeah, I would say this is the biggest limitation, especially for subgroup and multivariate analyses.

I think what would be really interesting to see is if there is moderation happening through catch can...

This will be coming

...or oil change frequency

I didn't ask about OCI, but probably should have. I expect, though, that lower OCI would be associated with higher fuel dilution. Not because a shorter OCI would cause fuel dilution, but because folks who know they have fuel dilution will probably be doing more frequent oil changes to mitigate the problem.

...is not statistically significant...

I just want to add my humble opinion that we should not got too caught up in "statistical significance." P-values are a fantastic tool (which is why I calculate them), but they are not without their limitations, especially for small sample sizes. I certainly don't advocate for the abolishment of p-values or even for the elimination of significance thresholds, but I do think it important that statistics, like all data, be interpreted within their proper context (including the underlying assumptions of the statistical tests employed). In other words, I do not completely agree with this commentary published in Nature a couple years ago, but I do think its authors raised some important, valid points.

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