Looking for career advice...

[Colo_Ranger]

My boss called me Friday to let me know that she's worried about the future of our current field. More specifically, being overtaken by AI. I've dedicated a good amount of time and effort to being good at my field but... here we are. Now, this isn't a tomorrow concern. I still have a job and will. Her concern is that in 10 years, AI will take over and I will be without a job.

Here are some facts:

1. I am 40.
2. My job is safe for now, but could be eliminated (though I don't actually believe people will be happy with the result when that happens).
3. I am looking in to the trades.
4. I love to learn, but I hate writing papers and such. I am not going to go get an AA or BS.
5. I have a 1.5 year old kiddo and I don't want to be working 16 hour days, if I can avoid it. I don't mind hard work but I don't want to get into work that will keep me from watching my kiddo grow up.
6. I am sure there are more facts, but I will update as they come up.

I've got 3 jobs in mind, but I have some concerns.

1. First job is welding. I have always wanted to learn how to weld and, given the opportunity, this might be a good transition. Here is my main concern; I am 40. I am too old to be the bitch on a job site. I'm also not in good shape, but I am working on that. When it comes to welding, I am generally interested in automotive/fabrication welding. I'm not really interested in construction welding. I know I have to start at the bottom and work my way up but... I'm also at an age where that is harder to do.
2. CAD/CAM design. I've been playing with designing my own parts and 3d printing them. I've gotten a lot of enjoyment out of it and think it would be a good job moving forward. Is this going to be replaced by AI? I don't see how AI can completely replace the human touch but... turns out people want cheap AI and not human decision making, so... I have no idea.
3. Machinist. This combines the CAD/CAM with physical manufacturing. I love to work with my hands. I enjoy work that has an actual 'this is what I created'.

All of these jobs have certifications that I can get and move to the workforce with decently low time.

So... the question at hand - what are your thoughts. Are there fields that I am not considering that I should look in to? Any advice from the masses? I've been fairly down since I had this conversation and I am struggling to find a way out. What if my next job only last 5 years again and I am back to square one... again... ?

Anyway, pity part over, I'm just looking for advice.

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[JohnnyLightning]

I think you might do better by going to the industry forum you already work in and asking that question. If you have fears of being eliminated, they will too and might have a plan that suits you. Just because we have the same truck doesn't mean my advise will suit you.

 

[AzScorpion]

Out of your 3 choices I'd go with welding. I know many machinist and most (not all) say it's a pretty boring job. Once you get the machines set up you're just standing around most of the time. My dad was the VP of a very large machine shop and I have many friends who've done this and have all said the same.

I'd also consider looking into the trades as either an electrician or plumber. They make damn good money and will never be replaced by AI. You're not stuck in one shop and always meeting new people. I'd stay away from carpentry because well, just look at Duke @DukeCanBuildit Would you really want to turn out like that? Besides he really hasn't aged well from all the stress in that line of work. Good luck!

 

[Colo_Ranger]

I think you might do better by going to the industry forum you already work in and asking that question. If you have fears of being eliminated, they will too and might have a plan that suits you. Just because we have the same truck doesn't mean my advise will suit you.

There are a lot of different walks of life here. I'm okay if not all the advice pans out, just asking for thoughts. Other opinions will help me wrap my mind around the options.

My current field will not have anyone with insight into my listed options above or trades, in general. I am a bookkeeper. I handle day to day finance for small businesses. Anyone in my field is going to be office going people and are, most likely, not looking to move to a trade.

 

[Colo_Ranger]

Out of your 3 choices I'd go with welding. I know many machinist and most (not all) say it's a pretty boring job. Once you get the machines set up you're just standing around most of the time. My dad was the VP of a very large machine shop and I have many friends who've done this and have all said the same.

I'd also consider looking into the trades as either an electrician or plumber. They make damn good money and will never be replaced by AI. You're not stuck in one shop and always meeting new people. I'd stay away from carpentry because well, just look at Duke @DukeCanBuildit Would you really want to turn out like that? Besides he really hasn't aged well from all the stress in that line of work. Good luck!

Electrical scares me... I've thought about plumber. Both good options. I will explore training for those fields.

 

[Bob902]

Electrical scares me... I've thought about plumber. Both good options. I will explore training for those fields.

My 23 year old son is 3/4 of the way to getting his commercial electrician license. He really enjoys it, but he was always fascinated with electrical stuff. Dude makes more money now than I did when I retired after 30 years as a state trooper. The trades are all hurting now. HVAC techs around here are in high demand.

 

[Colo_Ranger]

My 23 year old son is 3/4 of the way to getting his commercial electrician license. He really enjoys it, but he was always fascinated with electrical stuff. Dude makes more money now than I did when I retired after 30 years as a state trooper. The trades are all hurting now. HVAC techs around here are in high demand.

My concern with electrician/hvac/plumber is having to drive for work. Im not dangerous but my blood pressure shoots up when stuck around stupid drivers.

 

[DukeCanBuildit]

Out of your 3 choices I'd go with welding. I know many machinist and most (not all) say it's a pretty boring job. Once you get the machines set up you're just standing around most of the time. My dad was the VP of a very large machine shop and I have many friends who've done this and have all said the same.

I'd also consider looking into the trades as either an electrician or plumber. They make damn good money and will never be replaced by AI. You're not stuck in one shop and always meeting new people. I'd stay away from carpentry because well, just look at Duke @DukeCanBuildit Would you really want to turn out like that? Besides he really hasn't aged well from all the stress in that line of work. Good luck!

I haven’t been quite the same since I fell off that ladder.

 

[Jason B]

Welding is dirty, hard and hot work.
Self-employed pipelines with their own equipment can make up to $100 an hour, but you are away from home for weeks or months.
Shop welders in a fabrication shop, like where I work, get $20 to $30 hour, depending on experience. Some shops pay even less.

 

[CTYankee]

The first thing I'd tell you is don't make any plans based on one conversation about AI impact on your field. I don't know you, your boss, or what field you're in but it seems very strange to me that a boss would raise such a long-term concern with a subordinate. There's no good outcome from a conversation like that, but spooking the subordinate into leaving is a predictable one.

AI is going to be disruptive, no question, but it's going to take time and it will likely happen in fits and starts. The initial implementations will have failures that will slow adoption for critical fields in which wrong answers create unacceptable risks. Someone who knows what they're doing will have to train the algorithms and monitor them to ensure the correct results.

IMHO, AI will do best in highly repetitive processes or low- to moderate-complexity decision-making and will need to be proven out there first. Watch the trends and prepare yourself financially for either a career change or early retirement.

I spent 35 years in high-tech, starting in manufacturer-level tech support and eventually transitioning into corporate IT, eventually leaving IT as a Director-level to instead train college-hire salespeople to be able to talk about technology to C-level executives in business value terms instead of the bits and bytes that would make their eyes glaze over. I saw a lot of disruptive changes but every one also presented new opportunities.

My advice is to keep on eye on how AI develops, where it shows strength and where it shows weakness. Consider how that progression applies to your field and plan accordingly, based on what you see happening and at what pace and not on anyone else's fears. You might even find a new career in helping to apply it to the field you're already in.

 

[Colo_Ranger]

The first thing I'd tell you is don't make any plans based on one conversation about AI impact on your field. I don't know you, your boss, or what field you're in but it seems very strange to me that a boss would raise such a long-term concern with a subordinate. There's no good outcome from a conversation like that, but spooking the subordinate into leaving is a predictable one.

AI is going to be disruptive, no question, but it's going to take time and it will likely happen in fits and starts. The initial implementations will have failures that will slow adoption for critical fields in which wrong answers create unacceptable risks. Someone who knows what they're doing will have to train the algorithms and monitor them to ensure the correct results.

IMHO, AI will do best in highly repetitive processes or low- to moderate-complexity decision-making and will need to be proven out there first. Watch the trends and prepare yourself financially for either a career change or early retirement.

I spent 35 years in high-tech, starting in manufacturer-level tech support and eventually transitioning into corporate IT, eventually leaving IT as a Director-level to instead train college-hire salespeople to be able to talk about technology to C-level executives in business value terms instead of the bits and bytes that would make their eyes glaze over. I saw a lot of disruptive changes but every one also presented new opportunities.

My advice is to keep on eye on how AI develops, where it shows strength and where it shows weakness. Consider how that progression applies to your field and plan accordingly, based on what you see happening and at what pace and not on anyone else's fears. You might even find a new career in helping to apply it to the field you're already in.

I work for the family business (no, we're not the mob). The boss is also a family member. They're 6 years from retirement and can most likely make it through but that family member also wants me to be set for the future. The original plan was for me to take over the business, when the boss retires.

I get that this conversation will come across weird but its not just a boss/subordinate but also family/family.

The boss is giving me an opportunity to explore alternatives. Also, my work is impacted by AI now where all the programs we use are trying to replace us with their AI features. It hasn't worked yet, but it could just be a matter of time.

I'll be honest, I am kind of in a spiral right now and I am just trying to find my way back towards up. (I'm not spiraling in a dangerous way, just... what am I going to do? kind of way.)

 

[LaBalbe]

I feel you, mate. I'm only a few years older than you, and both the wife and I are linguists, which AI is trying real hard to take over.

It's doing a good job at the stupid, simple stuff which has pretty boiler-plate responses, but it's still atrocious when it comes to anything technical or more complicated. Hopefully, it will stay that way for a long time, but I'm also not holding my breath. And in any case, it takes someone who actually knows languages to realize just how poor a job it's doing.

Too many decision-makers don't actually understand how poorly AI produces. Instead, they just look at the alleged cost-savings and figure that it's "good enough" until they get slammed with a lawsuit because "good enough" really wasn't and left them exposed in ways they couldn't imagine.

I also don't want to start from the bottom again (this is not my first career change, so "been there, done that"), so I'm looking at more of a lateral transition where some of my other work and volunteer experiences will transfer over and give me a better starting position. To that end, I'm exploring the various project/program management fields as I like problem-solving and big picture thinking, and that type of work is present in every industry meaning that I won't get pigeon-holed into one that might become at-risk down the road.

The kid is now in high school, so we're starting to think real seriously about what the post-secondary path is going to look like for them. Trying to think of something that AI won't ruin by the time I can retire is scary, but trying to figure out the same for them when they haven't even entered the workforce yet is keeping me up at night.

 

[CTYankee]

Also, my work is impacted by AI now where all the programs we use are trying to replace us with their AI features. It hasn't worked yet, but it could just be a matter of time.

Applications (or programs) are nothing more than the automation of business processes. Consider, as a potential owner of the business, how you can turn the introduction of AI to your benefit. What are you doing that AI can do instead and what does that free you up to do instead? Again, it's tough to give you any specific advice without knowing what kind of business you're in.

After I left the corporate world, I bought a retail business selling and installing truck and off-road accessories. My wife and I ran that for 14 years before selling it on and fully retiring. I can think of a number of ways that AI could have saved us grunt work and freed us up to do more strategic things. I can also think of ways it could have presented challenges.

Take some time to work on your business instead of in your business, as they say. That might be your key to ending the spiral.

 

[FerdRanger]

nursing / health care pays well and seems safe for the time being

 

[RedlandRanger]

I will say this - there has been a LOT of hype about "AI", but the reality is that is hasn't lived up to all the hype. IMHO, We are in a situation similar to when the internet became "the thing". It was going to solve all the worlds problems - it did a lot of good things, but it failed to live up to the hype. I see AI doing the same thing. One thing you might consider is to learn how AI can help improve performance and/or reduce costs - in a smart way that is real. I'm so glad I'm retired now - I got so tired of senior managers always looking for the next "shiny thing" that would fix all the problems - so many times it really is crappy management that causes so many issues - and improving management skill really would improve things, but most of those managers think they know everything.

With that said, my opinion is that no one can go wrong in the trades - that is something they cannot replace - at least until such time as robots are smart enough to do their work. I think we are quite a long ways off from that day.

Good luck to you!

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