So now it begins…

[Trigganometry]

It will be a very longtime before this technology becomes prime time. Especially when multiple government agencies are involved in the process. They’re still trying to figure who is responsible for what as far as approvals and testing methods. I have yet to hear how secure these systems are. What’s the liabilities if something goes sideways because of it? Hypothetically, the entire line of these fitted vehicles gets hacked, then they all turn into battery bombs driving themselves to targets. Is there a global failsafe?

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[deleriumtremor]

Doesn't appear to have impacted the stock or sales, earnings call may be today

Right, this next bit probably belongs in the investing and wealth building thread, but I wouldn't be overweight TSLA. My recommendation would be if you are overweight TSLA, sell some of your stock to Kathy Wood and Larry Ellison, they will always buy the dip...

It all comes down to the fact that for the longest time Tesla took reserves against the FSD revenue, a proper thing to do. A while back they started releasing those reserves which drop right to the bottom line. Releasing those reserves says: FSD is about to start working, from a FASB point of view.

Specific to Elon, there are a lot of other issues like a potential miscalculation on what Twitter might do when he walked, like sue him in Delaware court to force him to make good on his $54/shr offer. Talking heads constantly point to the $1B breakup clause in the deal as chump change to Elon and it would be, if that is what his only exposure is. Of course, none of those numbskulls seem to understand what the contract actually says on that score. If Elon is forced by Delaware courts to make good on his offer, well...

When I think about the Tesla faithful (including people like Kathy Wood and her funds, who always buy the dip), and all the enlighten people who see nothing but a flawless product and visionary who really made it all happen, a line from a movie I once saw comes to mind, where Leon is trying to warn Julian about his reckless ways...

It goes something like, "I am just trying to warn you Julie, if those B*****s ever turn on you..." But..

 

[deleriumtremor]

Doesn't appear to have impacted the stock or sales, earnings call may be today

The reality is self driving isn't a primary purchase factor for those who buy Teslas:

The key factors that drive demand for all EVs involve the cost of gasoline, the available features (all-wheel drive, sedan versus larger vehicles), availability of battery charging stations, and the appeal of the “green” movement. Tesla did not invent the EV market, but it has brought to it elements of luxury and elite status that seem to have captivated some segments of the market. The next steps are to penetrate the “mainstream” market, to capture Generation Y consumers, and to lower price points.

Right, but that doesn't have anything to do with why this thread is a secret.

And please, don't posts clips of opinions without crediting who said it.

My mom said, "Billy you are a genius", of course, she was drunk when she said it. But someone could post that opinion in a very different way, like. "it has been said by people who really know him, Billy is a genius"

See what I mean?

 

[Big Blue]

It will be a very longtime before this technology becomes prime time. Especially when multiple government agencies are involved in the process. They’re still trying to figure who is responsible for what as far as approvals and testing methods. I have yet to hear how secure these systems are. What’s the liabilities if something goes sideways because of it? Hypothetically, the entire line of these fitted vehicles gets hacked, then they all turn into battery bombs driving themselves to targets. Is there a global failsafe?

I agree completely! the two biggest issues I see are a mix of AI driven vehicles and "human" driven vehicles on the same roads, and the proliferation of different and incompatible AI systems. Not so worried about the AI systems, they will plan and signal their intentions ahead of time. It's the humans who make last second mind changes and do not properly signal lane changes, exits and corners. The problem with incompatible systems is they need to talk to each other and negotiate things like passing, lane changes, exits and corners with the vehicles around them. this gets a little scary with the possibility of hacking.

 

[Squatchranger]

I agree completely! the two biggest issues I see are a mix of AI driven vehicles and "human" driven vehicles on the same roads, and the proliferation of different and incompatible AI systems. Not so worried about the AI systems, they will plan and signal their intentions ahead of time. It's the humans who make last second mind changes and do not properly signal lane changes, exits and corners. The problem with incompatible systems is they need to talk to each other and negotiate things like passing, lane changes, exits and corners with the vehicles around them. this gets a little scary with the possibility of hacking.

Especially when you consider that people have already hacked into and taken control of jeeps any vehicle with active lane keep assist auto braking all that can be with some limits controlled remotely theyve already done it. Now it was a piece of crap fiat with a different badge so our trucks are probably safer but even now we have that vulnerability and as things get more connected and integrated the risk skyrockets. Hell we will probably see the day soon where instead of using a hellfire missile and a drone to take out enemies the government will hack their cars and send them into a pole at 80 mph or take over and drive them to a place where there are guys waiting to arrest them

 

[deleriumtremor]

To maybe get the thread focused back on the secret...

Elon Musk said in a June interview that creating reliable self-driving technology is "essential" to the financial success of the company.

"[T]he overwhelming focus is on solving full self-driving," Musk said in an interview with the YouTube channel "Tesla Owners Silicon Valley." "That's essential. It's really the difference between Tesla being worth a lot of money or worth basically zero."

The foregoing is from the original article in Business Insider linked above.

But, don't tell anybody!

 

[deleriumtremor]

OK, to wrap things up, blow the lid completely off the secret, such as it is, and why I suspect, people shouldn't be overweight TSLA:

I have always felt that Tesla (totally Elon actually) might have been purposely misleading regarding its full self driving capability, conflating it with true autonomous capability, which is a very long ways from where Tesla likely will ever get with its current design approach, at least, as far as most of the rest of the autonomous driving experts around the world.

I honestly believe Elon Musk (who pretty much everyone agrees is a very smart fellow) has seen the handwriting on the wall for sometime. Between the obvious onslaught of coming EV offerings from just about every motor company, the fact that they sold full self driving for a really long time essentially as equivalent to autonomous. Along the way the company rightfully took reserves on the $12k they charge for the FSD option for a very long time as, for the longest time, including today, tomorrow and the foreseeable future, FSD doesn’t deliver anything close to approaching autonomous.

Here is where it starts to get kind of nasty. Tesla has been releasing those reserves in more recent quarters and using the added profits from those released reserves, along with the credits they sell to other motor companies to essentially beat the estimates and justify the buy, buy, buy pundits exhortations.

Tesla has a very loyal customer base, but if the tide turns and a meaningful portion of the people who paid full boat for the FSD option decided they want their money back and the largest portion of Tesla’s tech advantage (as Elon himself has stated in interviews) starts to go away, at a minimum, it is hard to see how Tesla will command a price earning multiple much better than say Apple (being extremely generous here). If that were to come to pass, Tesla stock would fall from its current $90x a share to somewhere around $215 a share. If Tesla were rerated to Ford’s PE, the stock would fall to around $43 a share.

To make matters worse for Elon, if the Apple PE scenario played out, and Delaware courts forced him to go through with the Twitter deal, or just made him pay a large penalty, essentially his net worth would be in the negative category.

I personally don't believe that would be in the cards for Elon. Hence the new residence outside the US possibility I voiced above.

I am not making predictions about the future or even trying to cast aspersions Elon's way because I think he is usually pretty forthcoming about the risks the company faces. I just think the Teslarati and certain big investors don't care about the risks, they are star struck and that is about it.

Probably should have left the whole thing rolling around in my brain. This is what happens when you taper the Tramadol, but keep taking the Prednisone.

 

[MountainGoat]

I never followed the autopilot ups and downs much but I think it's funny CA wants to ban gas everything and is now moving to ban the biggest EV manufacturer as well. They are gonna regulate themselves back to rickshaws.

 

[Colo_Ranger]

I never followed the autopilot ups and downs much but I think it's funny CA wants to ban gas everything and is now moving to ban the biggest EV manufacturer as well. They are gonna regulate themselves back to rickshaws.

I have some friends in Cali who believe Musk is God and Tesla is the second coming of Jesus. I asked them how they are going to feel when Tesla starts charging to charge their cars. They got mad at me and said "we don't talk about that". So, basically, they are hiding their heads in the sand to future concerns. Living in the 'Its good now, so who cares' world.

 

[NotBudule]

OK, to wrap things up, blow the lid completely off the secret, such as it is, and why I suspect, people shouldn't be overweight TSLA:

I have always felt that Tesla (totally Elon actually) might have been purposely misleading regarding its full self driving capability, conflating it with true autonomous capability, which is a very long ways from where Tesla likely will ever get with its current design approach, at least, as far as most of the rest of the autonomous driving experts around the world.

I honestly believe Elon Musk (who pretty much everyone agrees is a very smart fellow) has seen the handwriting on the wall for sometime. Between the obvious onslaught of coming EV offerings from just about every motor company, the fact that they sold full self driving for a really long time essentially as equivalent to autonomous. Along the way the company rightfully took reserves on the $12k they charge for the FSD option for a very long time as, for the longest time, including today, tomorrow and the foreseeable future, FSD doesn’t deliver anything close to approaching autonomous.

Here is where it starts to get kind of nasty. Tesla has been releasing those reserves in more recent quarters and using the added profits from those released reserves, along with the credits they sell to other motor companies to essentially beat the estimates and justify the buy, buy, buy pundits exhortations.

Tesla has a very loyal customer base, but if the tide turns and a meaningful portion of the people who paid full boat for the FSD option decided they want their money back and the largest portion of Tesla’s tech advantage (as Elon himself has stated in interviews) starts to go away, at a minimum, it is hard to see how Tesla will command a price earning multiple much better than say Apple (being extremely generous here). If that were to come to pass, Tesla stock would fall from its current $90x a share to somewhere around $215 a share. If Tesla were rerated to Ford’s PE, the stock would fall to around $43 a share.

To make matters worse for Elon, if the Apple PE scenario played out, and Delaware courts forced him to go through with the Twitter deal, or just made him pay a large penalty, essentially his net worth would be in the negative category.

I personally don't believe that would be in the cards for Elon. Hence the new residence outside the US possibility I voiced above.

I am not making predictions about the future or even trying to cast aspersions Elon's way because I think he is usually pretty forthcoming about the risks the company faces. I just think the Teslarati and certain big investors don't care about the risks, they are star struck and that is about it.

Probably should have left the whole thing rolling around in my brain. This is what happens when you taper the Tramadol, but keep taking the Prednisone.

Mum is going to be FURIOUS !!!

 

[deleriumtremor]

Mum is going to be FURIOUS !!!

Sadly, mum passed a very long time ago.

 

[NotBudule]

Sadly, mum passed a very long time ago.

Yes , mine too , but mums demise does not break the "Mums the word bond " , she will be waiting for you with "that look" , that's the main reason I want to live forever ...

 

[deleriumtremor]

Yes , mine too , but mums demise does not break the "Mums the word bond " , she will be waiting for you with "that look" , that's the main reason I want to live forever ...

Hope you do.

My mum always hated carney barkers, so I think she will forgive my indiscretion.

 

[NotBudule]

Hope you do.

My mum always hated carney barkers, so I think she will forgive my indiscretion.

 

[D Fresh]

I agree completely! the two biggest issues I see are a mix of AI driven vehicles and "human" driven vehicles on the same roads, and the proliferation of different and incompatible AI systems. Not so worried about the AI systems, they will plan and signal their intentions ahead of time. It's the humans who make last second mind changes and do not properly signal lane changes, exits and corners. The problem with incompatible systems is they need to talk to each other and negotiate things like passing, lane changes, exits and corners with the vehicles around them. this gets a little scary with the possibility of hacking.

You're not worried about the AI systems?

Have you seen autopilot glitches? Do you have lane keeping in your Ranger? Have you ever had it try to follow the outside line when it shouldn't?

The impending future of AI systems driving around scares the shit out of me.

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