I spent yesterday truck shopping. Current state of dealers offers in Ohio...

[Cg32]

I'm thinking the economy will tank, hence, wait.
Less buyers, more inventory.
Roll the dice, who knows. ?

That was my thinking as well, but it was a double edged sword for me. The dealership had the ranger I wanted at a “fair” price for the current market, but they offered my $7k over what I paid for my trade 2 years ago. When the economy tanks, the trade value will go down in a corresponding fashion as well. If you don’t have a decent trade in or are paying cash, it would likely be worth it to wait. It’s really a gamble either way, either now or later, so for me it came down to need, finding something that was 95% of what I was looking for from a feature perspective and existing equity in my trade.

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[JohnnyO]

Ok, that's a weird comment.
You know they can't do that right?
The real problem was offshoring & just in time deliveries.
I could be wrong, probably am, but if half the stuff would be made in the
America's (north/central & south) maybe we would not be in such a mess.
Single point of failure is the problem. Our boys frigged up, plain & simple.

Yeah, right...
You don't just snap your fingers and build a "chip plant". Couple being built and planned, but at costs of 12-15 billion dollars and 2-5 years to build. Not something Ford can do !!!

Doesn't happen overnight but maybe recent events have manufacturers thinking about vertical integration. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertical_integration

Including Ford.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/18/ford-partners-with-globalfoundries-to-increase-chip-supplies.html

Ford partners with GlobalFoundries to increase chip supplies

Officials said the tie-up could eventually result in new chip designs specifically for Ford and an increase in the domestic production and supply of chips for the overall automotive industry.

“We’re working to reimagine our supply chain,” Chuck Gray, Ford vice president of vehicle embedded software and controls, told CNBC during a phone interview. “It will really help increase our independence.”

The companies declined to discuss financial details of the agreement or how much GlobalFoundries will increase supplies to Ford in the near term. This collaboration does not involve cross-ownership between the two companies. Gray described the talks as being in their “early days.”

Mike Hogan, GlobalFoundries senior vice president and general manager of automotive, said the agreement is part of a multipronged approach for the company to improve the supply of chips to the automotive industry.

“There will be some near-term expansion of capacity … but this is about building a different future,” Hogan said during the joint interview. “The automotive industry is fundamental to our strategy.”

The partnership comes as automakers such as Ford are still battling through a global shortage of semiconductor chips that has sporadically caused plant closures for the past year. It also follows the Biden administration urging companies to onshore manufacturing supply chains, including semiconductor chips.

“This agreement is just the beginning, and a key part of our plan to vertically integrate key technologies and capabilities that will differentiate Ford far into the future,” Ford CEO Jim Farley said in a statement.

 

[AzScorpion]

That was my thinking as well, but it was a double edged sword for me. The dealership had the ranger I wanted at a “fair” price for the current market, but they offered my $7k over what I paid for my trade 2 years ago. When the economy tanks, the trade value will go down in a corresponding fashion as well. If you don’t have a decent trade in or are paying cash, it would likely be worth it to wait. It’s really a gamble either way, either now or later, so for me it came down to need, finding something that was 95% of what I was looking for from a feature perspective and existing equity in my trade.

This is spot on! Also to add to this don't think Ford or all the rest aren't going to add increases throughout the year. Add in the higher interest rates like Trig said and it'll be more costly to wait. Even if there's a rebate the higher rates and increases will offset those. We've had 2 down quarters in a row so technically we're in a recession right now but they just won't admit it!

Besides it's not like they're building thousands of dealer stock vehicles like before. So while a recession might stop some from buying there are thousands more who will be glad to buy what comes in. I don't see any fire sales happening like there were during covid in 2020. This is why Ford and others are pushing for customer orders and to have very little dealer inventory now. The days of seeing mega year end discounts are over.

 

[JohnnyO]

I started saying this back in the mid 1980’s. We produced much of what we used. Then the offshoring and moving operations to Mexico started. In the US back then the machine tool industry was 80 billion a year across all manufacturing. Within 2 years it went from that to 21 billion a year. That’s when we became a service economy and not manufacturing.

Here we are today, bunch of fat cats at the top and all us are arguing over the scraps. This isn’t rocket science. It was a calculated move to go to a one world economy with us pulling the strings!

The cost advantage of off-shoring was just to great to overcome. Until you rely on them for almost everything and then suddenly you can't get stuff any more.

 

[CB750F]

Doesn't happen overnight but maybe recent events have manufacturers thinking about vertical integration. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertical_integration

Including Ford.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/18/ford-partners-with-globalfoundries-to-increase-chip-supplies.html

Ford partners with GlobalFoundries to increase chip supplies

Officials said the tie-up could eventually result in new chip designs specifically for Ford and an increase in the domestic production and supply of chips for the overall automotive industry.

“We’re working to reimagine our supply chain,” Chuck Gray, Ford vice president of vehicle embedded software and controls, told CNBC during a phone interview. “It will really help increase our independence.”

The companies declined to discuss financial details of the agreement or how much GlobalFoundries will increase supplies to Ford in the near term. This collaboration does not involve cross-ownership between the two companies. Gray described the talks as being in their “early days.”

Mike Hogan, GlobalFoundries senior vice president and general manager of automotive, said the agreement is part of a multipronged approach for the company to improve the supply of chips to the automotive industry.

“There will be some near-term expansion of capacity … but this is about building a different future,” Hogan said during the joint interview. “The automotive industry is fundamental to our strategy.”

The partnership comes as automakers such as Ford are still battling through a global shortage of semiconductor chips that has sporadically caused plant closures for the past year. It also follows the Biden administration urging companies to onshore manufacturing supply chains, including semiconductor chips.

“This agreement is just the beginning, and a key part of our plan to vertically integrate key technologies and capabilities that will differentiate Ford far into the future,” Ford CEO Jim Farley said in a statement.

Yup! But they can't build everything, need partners.
JIT & offshoring, need to make more here to not be vulnerable.
As Trig suggest, all a plan?
Too many ego's for the plan to work on such a long timeline.

Cheers! ?

 

[CB750F]

This is spot on! Also to add to this don't think Ford or all the rest aren't going to add increases throughout the year. Add in the higher interest rates like Trig said and it'll be more costly to wait. Even if there's a rebate the higher rates and increases will offset those. We've had 2 down quarters in a row so technically we're in a recession right now but they just won't admit it!

Besides it's not like they're building thousands of dealer stock vehicles like before. So while a recession might stop some from buying there are thousands more who will be glad to buy what comes in. I don't see any fire sales happening like there were during covid in 2020. This is why Ford and others are pushing for customer orders and to have very little dealer inventory now. The days of seeing mega year end discounts are over.

For sure.
We all make our choices on the info we have.
I bought mine in December 2020. Why? Because I thought that by the time
I wanted one, cuz I did not need it in 2020, there would be none to have!
I hate being right with bad news....

 

[JohnnyO]

This is spot on! Also to add to this don't think Ford or all the rest aren't going to add increases throughout the year. Add in the higher interest rates like Trig said and it'll be more costly to wait. Even if there's a rebate the higher rates and increases will offset those. We've had 2 down quarters in a row so technically we're in a recession right now but they just won't admit it!

Besides it's not like they're building thousands of dealer stock vehicles like before. So while a recession might stop some from buying there are thousands more who will be glad to buy what comes in. I don't see any fire sales happening like there were during covid in 2020. This is why Ford and others are pushing for customer orders and to have very little dealer inventory now. The days of seeing mega year end discounts are over.

I've read elsewhere that moving forward, Ford is planning on more sold orders and less dealer stock. Of course for that to work you have to get cars to people in a reasonable amount of time, not 6 months.
In 2000 my late father ordered a new BMW. Easily the worst POS and the first and last imported car he ever owned, but I digress. Order went to Germany, car got built and shipped across the ocean, and was at the dealer in Pittsburgh literally four weeks to the day after he ordered it. I thought that was damned impressive.
What could be a problem in the near future is that the people who overpaid for their new cars will be upside down for quite a while when they go to sell or trade in.

 

[JohnnyO]

For sure.
We all make our choices on the info we have.
I bought mine in December 2020. Why? Because I thought that by the time
I wanted one, cuz I did not need it in 2020, there would be none to have!
I hate being right with bad news....

I got mine in March '21 before the market went crazy, I had planned on getting a new Ranger in another year but my Sport Trac blew a head gasket at 212,000 miles so it forced my hand. I'd already put a lot of money into it the past two years. Was going to order a new one with X-Plan through my employer and take my chances limping along with Bar's Leak Head Gasket Sealer in the Trac (after a couple days the white smoke did indeed stop) but someone had traded in a 2020 that was almost exactly what I would have ordered anyway. SCab STX 4x4, tow package, no step bars. Deal was close enough to what I wanted, I had the Trac's title in my pocket and took the Ranger home that day. Like I said, it worked out because in another month or two I'd have been screwed.

 

[CB750F]

I got mine in March '21 before the market went crazy, I had planned on getting a new Ranger in another year but my Sport Trac blew a head gasket at 212,000 miles so it forced my hand. I'd already put a lot of money into it the past two years. Was going to order a new one with X-Plan through my employer and take my chances limping along with Bar's Leak Head Gasket Sealer in the Trac (after a couple days the white smoke did indeed stop) but someone had traded in a 2020 that was almost exactly what I would have ordered anyway. SCab STX 4x4, tow package, no step bars. Deal was close enough to what I wanted, I had the Trac's title in my pocket and took the Ranger home that day. Like I said, it worked out because in another month or two I'd have been screwed.

Cool.
I was looking on internet, could not find what I wanted, so, I walked into
the dealer, he found something close, so we bought. Not crazy about chrome but, it's
what was available .

 

[AzScorpion]

For sure.
We all make our choices on the info we have.
I bought mine in December 2020. Why? Because I thought that by the time
I wanted one, cuz I did not need it in 2020, there would be none to have!
I hate being right with bad news....

I can relate to the bolded part! While I try and remain optimistic it's somewhat easy to see through the BS and get a good look at what's really going on. I stay away from the media and talk with real people every day. Some are just everyday folks like us here but many of my customers are either in the financial sector or very well off on their careers where I value their opinions. Let's just say most are not very optimistic about what's coming and agree a lot of things right now (in the stock market) don't make much sense.

So unless you can lock in a price (I know Granger will do this) right now I wouldn't be waiting much longer to buy. This is where I'm at with my Bronco order which is through them. I'm price protected (hopefully Ford doesn't change this) with my 2020 reservation through 2023. If they decided not to honor this when the order banks open up next month you'll see a lot of very mad reservation holders dropping their orders because the prices are now $3,000+ higher. That's why I say if there's something on the lot close to what you're looking for try and make that deal happen. With the parts constraints and the manufacturers changing the rules whenever they want I'd grab what I can now.

 

[JohnnyO]

Cool.
I was looking on internet, could not find what I wanted, so, I walked into
the dealer, he found something close, so we bought. Not crazy about chrome but, it's
what was available .

Yeah, I wanted red or blue but every new Ranger at every dealer in western PA was gray or silver and my last three trucks were all silver. My truck does not have the locking axle that I would have got and has the factory bedliner that I would have skipped, but otherwise it's exactly what I would have ordered, even the color. I tried my best not to do the happy dance in front of the salesman.

 

[Grumpaw]

I can relate to the bolded part! While I try and remain optimistic it's somewhat easy to see through the BS and get a good look at what's really going on. I stay away from the media and talk with real people every day. Some are just everyday folks like us here but many of my customers are either in the financial sector or very well off on their careers where I value their opinions. Let's just say most are not very optimistic about what's coming and agree a lot of things right now (in the stock market) don't make much sense.

So unless you can lock in a price (I know Granger will do this) right now I wouldn't be waiting much longer to buy. This is where I'm at with my Bronco order which is through them. I'm price protected (hopefully Ford doesn't change this) with my 2020 reservation through 2023. If they decided not to honor this when the order banks open up next month you'll see a lot of very mad reservation holders dropping their orders because the prices are now $3,000+ higher. That's why I say if there's something on the lot close to what you're looking for try and make that deal happen. With the parts constraints and the manufacturers changing the rules whenever they want I grab what I can now.

Agree 100%...if you see one thats close to what you want, grab it. Not going to be a lot of dealer stock in the future. And, if there is a 3, 4 ,5 month wait for a new order right now, who's to say that time line won't change to a longer time frame if parts suppliers, chip manufacturer's , ect don't run into more delays.
The dealer I spoke of hasen't had a new Ranger in several months, and the one new Mavrick they got in was sold the day it arrived, and it was just a base model XL...it sold for sticker $$$, but was a "plain Jane"
In my area people are litterly visiting dealers every day to see/buy what's come in the night before.
Ford/GM/Toyo/Niss/Honda/Subi...dosen't matter they come in and go right out.

 

[MountainGoat]

That was my thinking as well, but it was a double edged sword for me. The dealership had the ranger I wanted at a “fair” price for the current market, but they offered my $7k over what I paid for my trade 2 years ago. When the economy tanks, the trade value will go down in a corresponding fashion as well. If you don’t have a decent trade in or are paying cash, it would likely be worth it to wait. It’s really a gamble either way, either now or later, so for me it came down to need, finding something that was 95% of what I was looking for from a feature perspective and existing equity in my trade.

Paying cash was a wake up for me. Thinking I'd get a discount and had multiple dealers tell me the opposite because "the price is based on our financing". Like F your financing I'm not paying interest if i dont have too. Had to drive to KC to get a deal, 4.5 hour drive one way.

 

[Trigganometry]

Paying cash was a wake up for me. Thinking I'd get a discount and had multiple dealers tell me the opposite because "the price is based on our financing". Like F your financing I'm not paying interest if i dont have too. Had to drive to KC to get a deal, 4.5 hour drive one way.

When my son bought his F150 the dealer played that game with him. It was their financing company. Ok if we do this what are you giving us? Do not bite if no incentives from them for the deal. Go sharpen your pencils and come back with a price we’re willing to pay.

My son is like what are you doing dad? I said their financing is a high interest. The contract says we need to make like 3 payments before refinancing with someone else. We go to your credit union. You plunk down as much as you want when they pull the loan and you can middle bird the dealer.

That’s exactly what he did too. Got them 4.5K lower than what they were asking.

 

[Cg32]

Paying cash was a wake up for me. Thinking I'd get a discount and had multiple dealers tell me the opposite because "the price is based on our financing". Like F your financing I'm not paying interest if i dont have too. Had to drive to KC to get a deal, 4.5 hour drive one way.

Same here on a past purchase. I learned that if you want to pay cash, either finance it and pay it off later, or tell them you are going with a small down payment, get the terms set and while in the finance office, “change your mind” and put down 90% and pay off the balance a few months later. The dealerships are incentivized by banks they finance with, which is why they are more willing to work with you. This even applies to outside financing sometimes as well.

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