Deprecation of the 2019 Ford Ranger? A Preemptive Investigation.

[ch47dmechanic]

You motivated me to go check Carvana for myself. They're offering me almost $33,000 for my truck on the spot! ?

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[AzScorpion]

so typically, mods generally dont increase the value of your vehicle much if at all.
some mods are a total loss when you re-sell.

so on a depreciation standpoint, how much less would my trucks value be if I installed a tailgate damper?

Seeing as you procrastinated getting one and have dropped your tailgate 1000 times by now I'd say - $1,200.00 for you. ?

 

[JaysOnTheEDGE]

I wouldn’t worry too much about it you could have an accident tomorrow and the truck gets totaled. Use the truck and enjoy it 1 day at a time.

 

[slowmachine]

Unless you’re buying and selling investment-grade cars (bunch of zeroes in the price tag, cost more than your house, etc.) everything about ownership is pure expense. You lose when you buy, you lose when you drive, and you lose when you sell. All of the value is in the usage. If you’re happy with the usage you get for the price that you’re paying, then it’s a good deal.

I threw away thousands of dollars to dump the BMW that I was driving and buy my Ranger. I wasn’t happy with the usage I was getting for the cost I was paying, and I was tired of throwing good money after bad. I bought my first car, a 1969 Mustang, in 1980. The Ranger is my 43rd car (I have a list) and though I have sold a handful for what I paid, I’ve never sold for higher than my purchase price.

Parting shot - if you want to find out exactly what your car is worth, call your insurance company and ask what they would pay you for a total loss.

 

[MathGod]

One of the reasons I bought my Ranger was I figured it would have good resale value.

With that being said I love this truck and have no plans on getting rid of it.

 

[GhostStrykre]

I just bought a used 2019 Ranger this weekend. I've been looking for a truck for a looong time, and my Ford Edge needed repair work that I didn't want to pay.

I always go to the same Ford salesman because he gives me a great deal every time. He tried to interest me in a new Ranger, but there were really no huge incentives on the Ranger. He and the finance guy said that Ford is not really selling the Ranger to fleet sales, have been stingy on leases (seriously, the money factor on a lease is not good), and had a very controlled approach with incentives. The truck keeps selling despite this, and Toyota considers the Ranger their primary (and perhaps only real) competition for the Taco. This is all stuff that holds values up higher.

I share all of that to really convey that the depreciation on these Rangers should not be significant. Lease residual values for 3 years are around 65-66%. The trucks are selling despite little assistance from Ford. Inventory is very slim right now in both the new and used market. People in this thread are sharing trade in values (i checked carvana myself and my offer was only like $500 less than what I paid!).

you ought to be in good shape by the time the Ranger Raptor comes around..... Additional Dealer Markups on that thing tho; start savin..... that's a different thread for a different day.

 

[Richard Conley]

Check out the posts for people that sold theirs via Carvanna - might surprise you. I drive cars back from auction for our little town Ford dealer and auction prices are near retail. https://www.ranger5g.com/forum/threads/good-bye-friends.8759/page-11#post-161389

 

[quangdog]

I have no plans to sell my Ranger - I love this truck and hope to drive it for a looong time... But out of curiosity, I checked KBB after browsing this thread. I paid just under $41K for my 2019 (fully loaded Lariat FX4) in March of this year. Trade in value high end is $38K, private party high end is around $41.5K. So it hasn't really lost much value at all yet.

The only reason I'd consider selling is if something MUCH, MUCH more attractive comes along... And I don't see that happening for at least 5-7 years. Maybe even longer.

 

[Chuck Lau]

Unless you’re buying and selling investment-grade cars (bunch of zeroes in the price tag, cost more than your house, etc.) everything about ownership is pure expense. You lose when you buy, you lose when you drive, and you lose when you sell. All of the value is in the usage. If you’re happy with the usage you get for the price that you’re paying, then it’s a good deal.

I threw away thousands of dollars to dump the BMW that I was driving and buy my Ranger. I wasn’t happy with the usage I was getting for the cost I was paying, and I was tired of throwing good money after bad. I bought my first car, a 1969 Mustang, in 1980. The Ranger is my 43rd car (I have a list) and though I have sold a handful for what I paid, I’ve never sold for higher than my purchase price.

Parting shot - if you want to find out exactly what your car is worth, call your insurance company and ask what they would pay you for a total loss.

Hi Mike;
From a veteran in the car Business for 35 years......Quote: "A Good Deal is a State of Mind"

 

[slowmachine]

Hi Mike;
From a veteran in the car Business for 35 years......Quote: "A Good Deal is a State of Mind"

Well stated.

 

[BladeRanger]

First of all, mods, sorry if this should have been posted under a different sub-section of the forums. I'll be honest, I was not quite sure where this thread would fit.

The genesis of this thread is very preemptive on my part as I am attempting to forecast the depreciation of my 2019 Ford Ranger. I was inspired reading the post about the price for a Ford Ranger through a Carvana offer. I have no intention of selling my truck - I love it. However, I am interested to see if the rumored Ford plans for updates for the Ranger in 2021 hold true. IF (a big if) the Ranger Raptor does make its way to America, I am VERY interested in obtaining one.

I decided I would do some simple investigation for pricing of three-year deprecation of compact/mid-size trucks as 2019 - 2021 (when the upgrades are coming) would fit the 'three year depreciation' criteria. Sadly, we don't have any Ranger data to pull from outside of the 2011 model. I considered attempting to compare it to European and Australian Ranger models from 2018 to 2020 but this is unfair in my opinion as it is a completely different market and currency inflation valuation. So my methodology was to compare current Ranger depreciation to 2018 similar models mid-size trucks and the 2011 Ford Ranger to track those respective brand depreciations. I listed 2018 MSRP values and adjusted them for inflation in 2020. I then compared the 2018 adjusted inflation value to current 2020 values to better track depreciation.

Here is what I found through my investigation. If I have made errors in my approach, I apologize. My career is not in financing, economics, math.

2019 Ford Ranger

Original MSRP - $24,300 to $44,625 (Loaded Lariat Model). ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION IN 2020 = $24,627.35 to $45,226.15​

Current 2020 Prices: $22,995 to $41,000(MY XLT ESTIMATED VALUE: $32,514, trade-in value of $25,144)​

This particular truck has depreciated $1,305 from lowest to $3,265 from highest MSRP in 1 year's time.​

2011 Ford Ranger

Original MSRP - $18,600 to $29,000. ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION in 2020 = $21,424.82 to $33,404.30​

Current 2020 Prices: $3,000 to $24,980. Assuming $24,980 is $3,649 above market average for these trucks, an average 'fair deal price' based on CarGurus data would be a total of $21,331​

Based on 2020 inflation values and current pricing, this particular truck has depreciated $12,073.30 from highest MSRP data in 8 year's time. ​

​

2018 Chevy Colorado

Original MSRP - $20,000 to $42,000 ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION in 2020 = $21,140.75 to $43,337​

Current 2020 Prices: $16,650 to $36,306​

Based on 2020 inflation values, this particular truck has depreciated $4,490.75 to $7,031 in 3 year's time. ​

​

2018 GMC Canyon

Original MSRP - $21,100 to $43,600. ADJUSTRED FOR INFLATION in 2020 = $21,771.72 to $44,988​

Current 2020 Prices: $17,558 to $37,275​

Based on 2020 inflation values, this particular truck has depreciated $4,213.72 to $7,714 in 3 year's time.​

​

2018 Toyota Tacoma
Original MSRP - $25,400 to $43,720. ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION in 2020 = $26,208.61 to $45,111.83
Current 2020 Prices: $20,544 to $34,875
Based on 2020 inflation values, this particular truck has depreciated $5,664.61 to $10,236.83 in 3 year's time.

2018 Honda Ridgeline
Original MSRP - $29,730 to $43,220. ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION in 2020 = $30,676.46 to $44,595.91
Current 2020 Prices: $24,110 to $35,017
Based on 2020 inflation values, this particular truck as has depreciated $6,566.46 to $9,578.91

2018 Nissan Frontier
Original MSRP - $18,990 to $36,800. ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION in 2020 = $19,594.55 to $37,971.53
Current 2020 Prices: $15,026 to $28,895
Based on 2020 inflation values, this particular truck has depreciated $4,568.55 to $9,076.53 in 3 year's time.

Predicted Depreciation Aggregate of all similar makes and models in 3 year's time: $5,100.82 to $8,727.45

So what does this all mean? Assuming all pricing averages and estimates are accurate, it could mean the Ford Ranger could expect to see a deprecation from original MSRP around $5,000 at the MINIMUM. More likely, it will be closer to $8,000 in depreciated value. That being said, it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict with certainty what the depreciation of the Ford Ranger will be in 2021. Each truck is not built the same, each truck has different options/add-ons, each STATE market is different.

It is all speculation, but, I am going to assume the 2021 Ranger will have a starting MSRP for the barebones 2WD XL model around $25,000. The Ranger Raptor? If the rumors are true, I wouldn't be shocked to see a starting price of at least $40,000. That would mean I could expect my current value 2019 XLT Ranger to be around conservatively $28,000 in private sale value and probably around $22,000 in trade-in value.

Now that I have made myself crazy with an exercise that is ultimately in futility, what do you all think? Do you expect the 2019 Ranger to maintain its value than estimated in 2021? Do you anticipate keeping your Ranger long-term or looking to flip it for the 2021 Ranger/Ranger Raptor?

Sources: U.S. News, CarGurus, Ford, KBB

I did a good choice in buying the Ranger, awesome. I'll be watching this thread.

 

[Dean]

Wouldn't a better approach be to just see what used 2019 Rangers are selling for?
Isn't this what Kelly Blue Book is all about?

 

[quangdog]

Quick side note: as a pedantic software engineer, I can't help but point out that deprecation is *not* the same as depreciation.

Most often software engineers replace deprecation with depreciation. (I.e., that feature has been depreciated, when they meant "deprecated"). This is the first instance I've seen of the reverse.

 

[geophb]

Quick side note: as a pedantic software engineer, I can't help but point out that deprecation is *not* the same as depreciation.

Most often software engineers replace deprecation with depreciation. (I.e., that feature has been depreciated, when they meant "deprecated"). This is the first instance I've seen of the reverse.

Some members deprecate the use of tailgate dampers.

Edit: Btw I had to google the meaning before I typed that.

 

[P. A. Schilke]

Some members deprecate the use of tailgate dampers.

Hi Geophb,

Yep and some forum members get anally bogged down in the minutia.

Best,
Phil Schilke
Ranger Vehicle Engineering
Ford Motor Co

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