Deprecation of the 2019 Ford Ranger? A Preemptive Investigation.

[Roaring Gorilla]

First of all, mods, sorry if this should have been posted under a different sub-section of the forums. I'll be honest, I was not quite sure where this thread would fit.

The genesis of this thread is very preemptive on my part as I am attempting to forecast the depreciation of my 2019 Ford Ranger. I was inspired reading the post about the price for a Ford Ranger through a Carvana offer. I have no intention of selling my truck - I love it. However, I am interested to see if the rumored Ford plans for updates for the Ranger in 2021 hold true. IF (a big if) the Ranger Raptor does make its way to America, I am VERY interested in obtaining one.

I decided I would do some simple investigation for pricing of three-year deprecation of compact/mid-size trucks as 2019 - 2021 (when the upgrades are coming) would fit the 'three year depreciation' criteria. Sadly, we don't have any Ranger data to pull from outside of the 2011 model. I considered attempting to compare it to European and Australian Ranger models from 2018 to 2020 but this is unfair in my opinion as it is a completely different market and currency inflation valuation. So my methodology was to compare current Ranger depreciation to 2018 similar models mid-size trucks and the 2011 Ford Ranger to track those respective brand depreciations. I listed 2018 MSRP values and adjusted them for inflation in 2020. I then compared the 2018 adjusted inflation value to current 2020 values to better track depreciation.

Here is what I found through my investigation. If I have made errors in my approach, I apologize. My career is not in financing, economics, math.

2019 Ford Ranger

Original MSRP - $24,300 to $44,625 (Loaded Lariat Model). ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION IN 2020 = $24,627.35 to $45,226.15​

Current 2020 Prices: $22,995 to $41,000(MY XLT ESTIMATED VALUE: $32,514, trade-in value of $25,144)​

This particular truck has depreciated $1,305 from lowest to $3,265 from highest MSRP in 1 year's time.​

2011 Ford Ranger

Original MSRP - $18,600 to $29,000. ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION in 2020 = $21,424.82 to $33,404.30​

Current 2020 Prices: $3,000 to $24,980. Assuming $24,980 is $3,649 above market average for these trucks, an average 'fair deal price' based on CarGurus data would be a total of $21,331​

Based on 2020 inflation values and current pricing, this particular truck has depreciated $12,073.30 from highest MSRP data in 8 year's time. ​

​

2018 Chevy Colorado

Original MSRP - $20,000 to $42,000 ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION in 2020 = $21,140.75 to $43,337​

Current 2020 Prices: $16,650 to $36,306​

Based on 2020 inflation values, this particular truck has depreciated $4,490.75 to $7,031 in 3 year's time. ​

​

2018 GMC Canyon

Original MSRP - $21,100 to $43,600. ADJUSTRED FOR INFLATION in 2020 = $21,771.72 to $44,988​

Current 2020 Prices: $17,558 to $37,275​

Based on 2020 inflation values, this particular truck has depreciated $4,213.72 to $7,714 in 3 year's time.​

​

2018 Toyota Tacoma
Original MSRP - $25,400 to $43,720. ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION in 2020 = $26,208.61 to $45,111.83
Current 2020 Prices: $20,544 to $34,875
Based on 2020 inflation values, this particular truck has depreciated $5,664.61 to $10,236.83 in 3 year's time.

2018 Honda Ridgeline
Original MSRP - $29,730 to $43,220. ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION in 2020 = $30,676.46 to $44,595.91
Current 2020 Prices: $24,110 to $35,017
Based on 2020 inflation values, this particular truck as has depreciated $6,566.46 to $9,578.91

2018 Nissan Frontier
Original MSRP - $18,990 to $36,800. ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION in 2020 = $19,594.55 to $37,971.53
Current 2020 Prices: $15,026 to $28,895
Based on 2020 inflation values, this particular truck has depreciated $4,568.55 to $9,076.53 in 3 year's time.

Predicted Depreciation Aggregate of all similar makes and models in 3 year's time: $5,100.82 to $8,727.45

So what does this all mean? Assuming all pricing averages and estimates are accurate, it could mean the Ford Ranger could expect to see a deprecation from original MSRP around $5,000 at the MINIMUM. More likely, it will be closer to $8,000 in depreciated value. That being said, it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict with certainty what the depreciation of the Ford Ranger will be in 2021. Each truck is not built the same, each truck has different options/add-ons, each STATE market is different.

It is all speculation, but, I am going to assume the 2021 Ranger will have a starting MSRP for the barebones 2WD XL model around $25,000. The Ranger Raptor? If the rumors are true, I wouldn't be shocked to see a starting price of at least $40,000. That would mean I could expect my current value 2019 XLT Ranger to be around conservatively $28,000 in private sale value and probably around $22,000 in trade-in value.

Now that I have made myself crazy with an exercise that is ultimately in futility, what do you all think? Do you expect the 2019 Ranger to maintain its value than estimated in 2021? Do you anticipate keeping your Ranger long-term or looking to flip it for the 2021 Ranger/Ranger Raptor?

Sources: U.S. News, CarGurus, Ford, KBB

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[Swishpapasweets]

Well as of recently my ranger is worth more than the loan on it accordingto kbb (30,000 loan vs 33000) but before the pandemic it was at 23k so with the pandemic throwing everything into chaos as well as electric vehicles becoming more popular it could keep its value or lose very little. ?‍

 

[RedlandRanger]

A few comments:

• Interesting analysis, but as you said, it is pure speculation. You won't know anything until you decide to sell. Things change all the time.
• Depreciation will almost always be higher the first 3 years of ownership. Typically, the longer you own a vehicle, the less you will lose in depreciation. Selling after 2 or 3 years typically results in the highest hit for depreciation.
• The 'new" Ranger (6G) won't be in 2021, it will most likely be 2022 or 2023 - I would assume any Ranger Raptor would get released AFTER the 6G Ranger - so it will still be a while yet - I don't think COVID has helped push this any faster.

 

[Hardy12000]

You definitely have a while before anything new Launches, Ford doesn't want to take any attention away from the Bronco right now.

 

[slowmachine]

As long as COVID19 continues to disrupt manufacturing, slightly-used vehicles will depreciate more slowly than usual. My son is the wholesale buyer for a large Toyota dealer. He is buying three times the number of used cars at auction than before the pandemic. Used Tacomas are priced at or above the MSRP for new trucks. This is highly variable from region to region, but scarcity is elevating the price of used cars. Lease returns are a hot commodity.

 

[Chris M]

We drove our '07 Explorer for 13 yrs. Replaced it with the Ranger.
I have every intention of driving the Ranger every bit as long, so am hoping the depreciation factor is of no importance to us.
Interesting speculation, though!

 

[EcoRanger]

I don't really care how much my Ranger has depreciated I plan on keeping her a very long time.

 

[Dr. Zaius]

^ This.

The COVID has thrown market prices into a tizzy.

The Carvana offer I got for my truck was several thousand above what I paid for it new.

I just checked and the KBB trade-in for my truck is now $4k more than I paid for it, with Private Party value at and above what Carvana offered.

But it doesn't matter because I'm planning on keeping it.

 

[Swishpapasweets]

I'm not planning on selling my ranger even to get the bronco. Still thought it was interesting that my truck shoot up 10k from earlier in the year

 

[Apples]

I'm reminded of a friend of mine from the mid to late 60s. He moved to Nashville, after high school, and worked in the music industry (read that as making a ton of money). About twice a year, he came up to Kansas City, MO (where I lived at the time), and bought all sorts of expensive vehicles, mostly Caddies. He trucked them back to Nashville, where the going price was 20% to 40% more than they were in KC, MO. The point being, what you can get for a used Ranger in the Rockies, means nothing in the flat lands!

 

[Roaring Gorilla]

I guess I was working with bad information. I thought 2021 was the re-design year. I guess I had not accounted for the impact of COVID-19.

Let me be clear that I don't necessarily PLAN to sell my truck by 2021. I would like to keep it for as long as I possibly can. However, I feel like I would be a fool not to try to gauge the equity of the truck. I am smart enough to know that a truck is not an investment and you are going to lose upwards of 40% of value within three years.

I wasted my time doing this was because ultimately I do want to try to trade towards a Raptor Ranger in the future. The Bronco looks cool, but those price points for an SUV really turn me off. I don't anticipate selling/trading my Ranger towards it.

 

[Brisko_Michigan]

KBB claims a value of $2-4K over what we paid; In the Detroit area, 2019 XLT with most of the packages, and 5,000 miles. Locally I’m finding one or two Rangers per lot, if any.

We’re not selling the Ranger, but above tracks with what we’re seeing on the other end of the deal as we look to trade in an F150 for a new second car. Priced up and out...for now. We plan to hover until Nov/Dec when stock should be up a bit more.

 

[geophb]

Ive seen the arm and leg that they want for the 2011 and older rangers, so i'm not terribly worried about resale value.

 

[SymChris]

so on a depreciation standpoint, how much less would my trucks value be if I installed a tailgate damper?

Seller: Loaded Lariat, even has a tailgate damper!

Me: They must be hiding something, HARD PASS!

 

[CO2Ranger]

Basing practical depreciation off of MSRP is a bit skewed from the get-go isn't it? Many will have received manufacturer rebates on the original purchase. I'm no finance guy but with the generous rebates that were available for awhile and the current market there is definitely a possibility for appreciation in practical terms (what the original buyer/seller would see) as others have mentioned.

I bought mine in March and just sold it. Made back the sales price and sales tax I originally paid.

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