Looking for career advice...

[TJC]

I have granddaughter who is being home schooled and has decided the University isn't worth the coast. So at 16 she is taking Electrical courses at her technical college which will earn her the necessary certifications. She is the only female in her classes and the youngest of all the students.

My career in IBM and Lenovo spanned a lot if disciplines including IBM Research in Knowledge bases, Neural Networking, and AI. Way back in 1995 we knew where the tech was going, and we had lively discussions about the social ramifications of what was coming. We covered/explored all the bases, from raw tech to the morality of it all, to the power concentrated in a few hands, to the infrastructure needs to support the systems, even to whether working people would become a drain on society (and what would possibly transpire as a result). It kept many of us awake at night.

It has largely unfolded as we forecast 35 years ago. And the road map is clear to those who are awake. Already AI can create code faster than any human. SW developers are on the way out. IBM just held an competition challenging employees to submit business cases to a AI management team. 16K submissions were placed. The top 115 were rated high enough to warrant entry into phase 2. Development, which allowed those teams 5 weeks to use Ai to develop the application. My wife was one of those 115 projects chosen.

We have had deep discussions on this topic in the last 2 months, and we are convinced IBM is leveraging the brightest folks to develop these applications in order to rid themselves of as many employees as possible.

This is but 1 company. Think globally.

Way back in 2000, Bill Joy, (Cofounder and Chief Scientist of Sun Microsystems, was co-chair of the presidential commission on the future of IT research, and co author of the Java Language Specification) wrote a letter to all member of the US Congress, and the President and Vice President of the USA, and then published it in Wired Magazine.

The letter was titled "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us". Here's an abridged version for those who can 't suffer through a long hard read of the original document

IBM never publishes layoff data or even actual employee numbers by country, but it does publish total employees. IBM currently has 270K employees. In early 2000's when I left IBM for Lenovo, IBM had 350K employees and in the next few years that number climbed to 440K. Here is the interesting part, back then 90% of those employees were located within the USA. IBM currently has only 30K US employees, and well over 200K Indian employees. And I can tell you with great confidence that both those numbers are going to drop dramatically in the next 5 years. IBM simply will not need people.

IBM is not the exception. This is a broad global trend.

We are also going to see a large population decrease. And that decrease is not simply demographic, it was planned and is being executed.

As others have said, Trades and Health care are the short term best bet.

General Advice

• Open your eyes.
• Stay away from crowds.
• Don't put your trust in ANY government.
• It is usually in your interest to do the opposite of what any government is instructing you to do.
• Focus on the eternal
• Surround yourself with family and friends

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[got3fords]

You should also have a discussion with your financial advisor. They may want to make some investment adjustments based on your situation. Getting a reputable fiduciary was the best thing we ever did. I'm probably about 8 years from retiring, but if I had to, I could retire early and still be ok.

 

[RedlandRanger]

You should also have a discussion with your financial advisor. They may want to make some investment adjustments based on your situation. Getting a reputable fiduciary was the best thing we ever did. I'm probably about 8 years from retiring, but if I had to, I could retire early and still be ok.

A second for finding a fiduciary financial advisor. I wish I had done that years before we finally did. I'm sure it is what allowed me to retire "early" (just shy of 62). Before we got him, my old 401ks from previous employers really didn't do much - once we rolled them all over to him, they started growing.

 

[Charley]

As several have mentioned, vocational schools might have a good idea for trends in your area. Not sure how Colorado does education, but in Ohio most school districts are involved with multi-district vocational schools for high schoolers during the day and adult training in the evening. Not suggesting you go to school, just contact them and get their point of view. They may even offer a free assessment of what skills you have and how they may be used in future careers. Same goes for the technical colleges.

 

[RangerTX]

Being in the tech sector and currently neck deep in AI, I will tell you not to despair. The AI hype is about to fall off the cliff. All the big companies that have poured billions into adopting AI are not seeing the roi. It will take longer than the bobble heads think for it to really affect jobs. Most successful AI rollout use AI as a "intern"... they still need a person. Make no mistake about it, AI is here to stay and it will change humanity. However, I am here to tell you that everything your seeing on CNN and FOX is horseshit. ...like usual. Dont be a lemming bro.

 

[Colo_Ranger]

Being in the tech sector and currently neck deep in AI, I will tell you not to despair. The AI hype is about to fall off the cliff. All the big companies that have poured billions into adopting AI are not seeing the roi. It will take longer than the bobble heads think for it to really affect jobs. Most successful AI rollout use AI as a "intern"... they still need a person. Make no mistake about it, AI is here to stay and it will change humanity. However, I am here to tell you that everything your seeing on CNN and FOX is horseshit. ...like usual. Dont be a lemming bro.

Its not about being a lemming and it won't be overnight, but my boss and I are thinking about the future. She retires in 6 years so she can probably wait it out. I, on the other hand, have 25 more years (at least) before retirement. In 10-15 years, is my field going to be f'ed? That's the question I am trying to ask and plan for.

 

[RangerTX]

Respect.

What is your field?

Cant go wrong with the trades.

 

[Colo_Ranger]

Respect.

What is your field?

Cant go wrong with the trades.

I am a bookkeeper. Finance industry. I handle day to day finance for many businesses.

 

[CTYankee]

I am a bookkeeper. Finance industry. I handle day to day finance for many businesses.

In that case, I will tell you not to worry, at least not yet.. A good bookkeeper is about a lot more than plugging numbers into accounts. When I had our business, our bookkeeper worked with our accountant to give us the best look possible without straying too far over the line. Those are judgement calls that AI will be hard-pressed to make and any business owners that rely on AI for that need to have their head (and their books!) examined.

I could see your business evolving into one of advising and consulting vs. straight bookkeeping. One example - our bookkeeper helped us to develop a cashflow spreadsheet that showed money coming in and money going out; no non-cash adjustments at all. That helped us see the real flow of money through the business and gave us the ability to manage it to keep the bank balances healthy. That delivers far more value than making sure the right numbers hit the right accounts, IMHO.

I started in tech before the IBM PC was born. My first computer was really a word processor running Basic and I worked on what were then known as minicomputers (DEC PD11, for example). Over the next 40 years, I watched Moore's Law unfold in real time and made a progression of career changes from data communications into desktop, networking, large scale data storage, data center management, and even had a brief foray into applications development. None of those changes happened abruptly; all could be seen coming and people alert to them had plenty of time to adjust. I don't think AI will be any different so you likely have a decade or more to prepare to take advantage of it.

 

[TJC]

In that case, I will tell you not to worry, at least not yet.. A good bookkeeper is about a lot more than plugging numbers into accounts. When I had our business, our bookkeeper worked with our accountant to give us the best look possible without straying too far over the line. Those are judgement calls that AI will be hard-pressed to make and any business owners that rely on AI for that need to have their head (and their books!) examined.

I could see your business evolving into one of advising and consulting vs. straight bookkeeping. One example - our bookkeeper helped us to develop a cashflow spreadsheet that showed money coming in and money going out; no non-cash adjustments at all. That helped us see the real flow of money through the business and gave us the ability to manage it to keep the bank balances healthy. That delivers far more value than making sure the right numbers hit the right accounts, IMHO.

I started in tech before the IBM PC was born. My first computer was really a word processor running Basic and I worked on what were then known as minicomputers (DEC PD11, for example). Over the next 40 years, I watched Moore's Law unfold in real time and made a progression of career changes from data communications into desktop, networking, large scale data storage, data center management, and even had a brief foray into applications development. None of those changes happened abruptly; all could be seen coming and people alert to them had plenty of time to adjust. I don't think AI will be any different so you likely have a decade or more to prepare to take advantage of it.

You've always got to be looking over the horizon, and positioning yourself accordingly.

 

[dtech]

DEC PDP 11 - still in use, have a friend that worked for a large bank and they still used on for some specific app. Spent 10 yrs at DEC, they went from being a hot commodity to steep decline during that time frame, had to beg to get a severance package but finally my wish was granted.

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