A New Era in vehicles

[12Bravo20]

I live in rural Missouri and one of the biggest ethanol plants is just 15 miles away and most gas stations don't even have E85 available. I don't see charging stations being available anytime soon.

And I would not want an electric vehicle with all of the trips I have to make to the VA hospital which is a 110 mile round trip each time. And the distances are even worse out west.

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[NOVA_Ranger]

A lot of batteries to produce, and eventually dispose of…

 

[FunInTheSun]

Yep, we're in the twilight of the internal combustion engine. Within a decade, they'll be a luxury and we'll pay $$$ to buy fuel for them. I'm guessing this will be my last or second to last new car that is gas solely gas powered simply because I won't have a choice.

I have a little different take on this. OEMs like Ford love these because it eases the burden of CAFE standards. If they make more EVs, they can continue to make the gas-guzzlers without going to such extremes about gas mileage. There is a good use case for EVs, but they aren't really proctical for anyone who plans on a trip lasting longer than about 6 or 8 hours. There's no way for the entire world to go EV. It's an environmental disaster. There's not enough lithium, and the electrical infrastructure is not there.

Charging is still problematic. To charge a typical car like a current Tesla, it still takes 8-12 hours to charge up the vehicle. And your electric meter spins REALLY fast when you're charging... If you don't have a level 2 Charger (240 Volt, 60 Amp), you're going to have to manage your charging conscientiously if you plan on driving a lot. It can take 2-3 days to charge from minimum (10% or so?) if you have a big battery (100 kW-h).

Comparing the charge time of a chemical-fueled vehicle, (a couple of minutes) it's obvious if you need to get somewhere far away, the liquid fuel is better. It's also easily storable, and easily distributed or shared with a neighbor.

But taxi companies, local Uber-type services or fleet operators with a reasonably local service area will probably buy up a ton of these. Electric motors are much less trouble to maintain. No gearboxes (usually), and periodic oil changes are a thing of the past. So there is a market for them, but they are not super convenient for the average Joe Blow, which he will probably only realize when it's time to go visit Aunt Margaret three states away, or make a trip to the mountains for a camping / hiking / skiing vacation.

And for those of a certain prepper / bug-out mentality, electric cars are completely out of the question.

So they're not for everybody. I think it's possible the gas cars they still make will be a little nicer, because the pressure for ULTIMATE GaS MiLeAgE!!! is eased up if they sell enough EVs. Probably offer some (optional, of course) engines with REAL power, and some additional driving modes, etc. They will probably run on alcohol (don't get me started on that) and gasoline, which is nice, especially if you can make it yourself (illegal in most states, unless you get a license and pay the revenooers).

 

[FunInTheSun]

I also like hybrids a lot.

 

[JJG]

I have a little different take on this. OEMs like Ford love these because it eases the burden of CAFE standards. If they make more EVs, they can continue to make the gas-guzzlers without going to such extremes about gas mileage. There is a good use case for EVs, but they aren't really proctical for anyone who plans on a trip lasting longer than about 6 or 8 hours. There's no way for the entire world to go EV. It's an environmental disaster. There's not enough lithium, and the electrical infrastructure is not there.

Charging is still problematic. To charge a typical car like a current Tesla, it still takes 8-12 hours to charge up the vehicle. And your electric meter spins REALLY fast when you're charging... If you don't have a level 2 Charger (240 Volt, 60 Amp), you're going to have to manage your charging conscientiously if you plan on driving a lot. It can take 2-3 days to charge from minimum (10% or so?) if you have a big battery (100 kW-h).

Comparing the charge time of a chemical-fueled vehicle, (a couple of minutes) it's obvious if you need to get somewhere far away, the liquid fuel is better. It's also easily storable, and easily distributed or shared with a neighbor.

But taxi companies, local Uber-type services or fleet operators with a reasonably local service area will probably buy up a ton of these. Electric motors are much less trouble to maintain. No gearboxes (usually), and periodic oil changes are a thing of the past. So there is a market for them, but they are not super convenient for the average Joe Blow, which he will probably only realize when it's time to go visit Aunt Margaret three states away, or make a trip to the mountains for a camping / hiking / skiing vacation.

And for those of a certain prepper / bug-out mentality, electric cars are completely out of the question.

So they're not for everybody. I think it's possible the gas cars they still make will be a little nicer, because the pressure for ULTIMATE GaS MiLeAgE!!! is eased up if they sell enough EVs. Probably offer some (optional, of course) engines with REAL power, and some additional driving modes, etc. They will probably run on alcohol (don't get me started on that) and gasoline, which is nice, especially if you can make it yourself (illegal in most states, unless you get a license and pay the revenooers).

Cafe standards are not a burden to the automakers, this is a myth. When is fact these standards reduce the cost of fuel for all drivers, due to reduced consumption. This in turn causes more potential customers to keep buying into the value of that product. The lower operating cost has been a boon for the auto industry, despite the myths saying otherwise.
All of the future speculation of power grids not being sufficient, charge times being too slow, used battery disposal etc. are no different than the arguments I heard 30-40 years ago when the push was to double the gas mileage from 10 mpg at the time. Can never happen, said all of the skeptics, cars will never be affordable, we would all be relegated to public transportation with our freedoms being at risk. Guess what? Our rangers get 2 1/2 times the fuel economy of my 1980 Ford Bronco, and 25% better economy than my 2000 Ranger. So all of the doom and gloom of how electrification will never work for one reason or another, is just the typical reaction of humans to change.

 

[FunInTheSun]

Cafe standards are not a burden to the automakers, this is a myth. When is fact these standards reduce the cost of fuel for all drivers, due to reduced consumption. This in turn causes more potential customers to keep buying into the value of that product. The lower operating cost has been a boon for the auto industry, despite the myths saying otherwise.
All of the future speculation of power grids not being sufficient, charge times being too slow, used battery disposal etc. are no different than the arguments I heard 30-40 years ago when the push was to double the gas mileage from 10 mpg at the time. Can never happen, said all of the skeptics, cars will never be affordable, we would all be relegated to public transportation with our freedoms being at risk. Guess what? Our rangers get 2 1/2 times the fuel economy of my 1980 Ford Bronco, and 25% better economy than my 2000 Ranger. So all of the doom and gloom of how electrification will never work for one reason or another, is just the typical reaction of humans to change.

I never said they were a burden to the manufacturers. They are just a cost of doing business, and an engineering challenge to them. But it definitely has an impact on what sort of vehicles they can make available...

And my new Ranger gets EXACTLY the same mileage that my 2000 Mazda B3000 got. Of course it can carry 2-1/2 times the payload...

 

[Scooter]

If you generate power by water, wind and solar fine then it makes sense. Most States burn fossil fuels to make electricity. Let's just keep polluting the land by toxic processes to remove the resources. China's again getting the upper had by owning a big % of mines around the World. Where I live they use Hydro Electric in the morning and burn the worst Oil, Alberta Tar Sands supposedly in the evening. Say good by to parking spaces as you will need space for a car to fully charge for over 3 hours. The Government and Corporation will get there money from you in the future through inventive tax schemes and other way's. Also say good by to jobs as electric cars have less parts then ICE cars. Just keep sucking the middle class dry. I can see why Society is on such a fine line our disposable income is vanishing. Ignorant's is Bliss.
I always felt we would have been better off with Tram's and Trains like they were heading in that direction in the 50's. The car companies spude their propaganda about freedom and driving across America. Chevy bought the Trams in California and destroyed them.

I corrected my spelling mistake.

 

[JJG]

I never said they were a burden to the manufacturers. They are just a cost of doing business, and an engineering challenge to them. But it definitely has an impact on what sort of vehicles they can make available...

And my new Ranger gets EXACTLY the same mileage that my 2000 Mazda B3000 got. Of course it can carry 2-1/2 times the payload...

You must have had the 4 banger in your Mazda. I had the 4.0 L V6 in my 2000 Ranger, which averaged 18-19 on the hwy & barely 15 in the city. My 98 Ranger had the anemic 3.0 V6 and on a good day maybe got 20 mpg on the hwy, if I was driving with the wind, and city driving mpg was similar to the 4.0 L.
As far as engineering challenges go, Im sure it was also a challenge to go from a hand crank to start a vehicle, to an electric starter as well.

 

[aeroshots]

Yeppers

 

[Bzmustang13]

Agree this will take a long time, will require a lot of public policy (And all it's BS), but it will happen. I'd recommend checking out the book 'The Wizard and the Prophet' by Charles Mann. The world is going the way of the Wizard, whether we like it or not.

NOT getting political and NOT saying the US should anything like China, but at some point the Gov't will pass a massive infrastructure overhaul project that includes power generation. China's belt & road initiative--while not without it's ulterior motives--has been huge for that nation (Again, not saying it is good or bad, just observational). Hopefully new tech comes with that; either breakthrough solar storage capabilities or altogether novel ideas. Have heard some very interesting things about future, supposedly-safer nuclear options etc..

Let's not forget that a major factor in the rise of the combustion engine & car--the national highway system--came a good 50ish years after the invention of the car. And even that had an "Ulterior" motive, which was to enable the movement of supplies more quickly in the event of war. Wasn't just so we could hit the beaches on labor day from Kansas.

Who knows what the future tech for battery recycling, charging, electricity storage etc. look like. Our species' electrical needs growth is exponential (I'd also argue parabolic, morbidly), but our technological "progress" has made an equally exponential rise over the last few hundred years. On the time scale that humans have walked the earth, that is better than any hockey stick stock, that is a straight up 1.0 vertical climb!

 

[THLONE]

In Japan they ride bicycles & ride the bus. A little car? You have to prove that you have a place to park it before you can buy. Get ready for your alternative lifestyle.

 

[FunInTheSun]

You must have had the 4 banger in your Mazda. I had the 4.0 L V6 in my 2000 Ranger, which averaged 18-19 on the hwy & barely 15 in the city. My 98 Ranger had the anemic 3.0 V6 and on a good day maybe got 20 mpg on the hwy, if I was driving with the wind, and city driving mpg was similar to the 4.0 L.
As far as engineering challenges go, Im sure it was also a challenge to go from a hand crank to start a vehicle, to an electric starter as well.

I had the 3.Slow, (B3000) and I got around 16 mpg city, and around 19 mpg hwy, which is exactly what I get with my new Ranger. But to give a complete picture, I do have a Check Engine light that Ford has yet to figure out. P0171 - "Bank 1 Lean". Long Term Fuel Trim is maxed out, and STFT is around 10-15 (at idle only). As soon as she get moving, even slightly, it drops back to +10 or so. So the ECU is adding fuel like crazy at idle. So after that is fixed, I expect the mileage will improve some. Maybe 1-2 mpg.

You misseed my point with my comment about engineering challenge. I am not saying it was difficult for Ford engineering to develop efficient vehicles. Engineering is solving problems. What problems the engineers get to solve is given to them by management, (presumably) informed by business reasons. I know this because I am an engineer. I am also the last guy to resist change because tradition or something. I love technology and clever solutions to problems. But in this case management determines that the problem the engineers are to solve is give people what they want, but also keep the Feds happy, or we can just close up shop and go home.

So all I am saying is once you understand how CAFE is calculated, you can understand why there is such an emphasis on mpg, and why certain vehicle lines are sacrificed to make room for others. Ford will make whatever the EPA wants, and we will buy whatever they make (or not, as the case may be). My point in all of it is that we as consumers have much less influence on what gets built, because if Ford doesn't build what EPA wants, they will go bankrupt from the fines even if they sell a ton of cars, because the fines / penalties are per vehicle sold.

 

[Jrel209]

I think we’re going to be talking about the transition to all-electric transportation until everyone on this forum is dead and gone.

Some points that I think about during my daily reading of related news:

Elon Musk is not the first to say this, but he is really the first to provide a tiny bit of a solution - the planetary supply of “fossil fuels” is a finite resource. We will certainly exhaust the supply. Nobody knows exactly when that will happen, but it is inevitable.

Ships sailed around the world for thousands of years on only wind power, supplemented in some tiny percentage by men pulling on oars.

Air travel, as we know it, is at extreme risk of becoming impossible unless we can find enormous quantities of a suitable renewable fuel.

Electric vehicle fires are only notable because of their newness. I dabbled in old Volkswagens for many years. Due to fundamental design flaws, fires are a fairly frequent occurrence, and a topic of much discussion on owner forums. I knew of one owner whose van’s starter short-circuited in the middle of the night, propelling the manual transmission-equipped vehicle, customarily parked in first gear, forward into the garage. The van caught fire. The garage, along with the house, were a total loss. The family escaped unharmed. I started parking my vans in 4th gear instead of 1st.

We have spent 100+ years building an infrastructure and lifestyles based on the availability of inexpensive oil-fueled transportation. It is unsustainable in its current form. Electric vehicles are a proverbial “finger in the dike.” Much more will be required.

Governments, politics, and politicians, must be part of the discussion and decisions on how to move forward, and at what pace. It’s going to be ugly, and many sacred cows will be sacrificed along the way.

To add, i believe Elon also admits that electric energy isnt a one all be all to solution, and he mentions he hopes others find other alternatives because as you said….. fossil fuels are finite. Wind, solar, etc as far as we know will outlast humanity. And if the sun dies we die anyways haha.

 

[FunInTheSun]

In Japan they ride bicycles & ride the bus. A little car? You have to prove that you have a place to park it before you can buy. Get ready for your alternative lifestyle.

I've been to Japan. Spent almost 4 years there. It's far weirder than people have any idea. And much of it would never work here. People ride bicycles to the train station. So there is a pile of bicycles at the entrance/exit 17 bicycles deep.

Like this...

I was thinking about getting a bike, and asked a Japanese friend how do they find their bike when they get off the train. He told me you just take whichever one you want...

Very different culture.

 

[Jrel209]

I've been to Japan. Spent almost 4 years there. It's far weirder than people have any idea. And much of it would never work here. People ride bicycles to the train station. So there is a pile of bicycles at the entrance/exit 17 bicycles deep.

Like this...

I was thinking about getting a bike, and asked a Japanese friend how do they find their bike when they get off the train. He told me you just take whichever one you want...

Very different culture.

I wish our infrastructure allowed for more bike commuting. Its just not plausible most places ive lived unfortunately. For example i used to live in california central valley, and i wanna say more than half the ppl who lived there had to commute 30-60min to work. Thats just not happening without personal vehicles.

It also doesnt help most ppl in America work 8hr shifts with a 30-60min lunch, then they have another 1-1.5 hr commute. Its crazy theres still a wonder why most ppl are stressed and road rage is rampant.

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