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AzScorpion

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And whomever owns that $350k CD is out $100k, which is how the government likes it
Not necessarily. If there's a joint holder on that CD it's covered up to $500K. If not they can still get the balance ($100K) back or a percentage of it when the Feds sells off the assets.
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dtech

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What I read is right now many smaller institutions are being hurt by the fact people are maxed out on credit and 1/2 point raise would eliminate them from borrowing additional money alongside the fact they also provide many auto loans that are now starting to default. Plus paying out higher rates to attract new money is another problem. This mess seems bigger then anyone admits at this point. I think history is being made.
it may become a very large mess if a recession/depression hits , the debt ratio to gdp was 124% in 2022, servicing the national debt becomes more expensive as interest rates rise, more than 12% of gov spending goes to this and is on the rise, recession means less $$ coming into the fed government, many yrs of bad fiscal mismanagement, this goes way back to the Reagan admin selling the public on "deficits don't matter" well for yrs gov spending accounts for an increasingly bigger share of the gdp and a lot of that is funded by borrowing - relatively cheap when interest rates were low and interest rates were kept low by fed monetary policies, it will be difficult to avoid a full blown recession if interest rates keep rising.
 

AzScorpion

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What I read is right now many smaller institutions are being hurt by the fact people are maxed out on credit and 1/2 point raise would eliminate them from borrowing additional money alongside the fact they also provide many auto loans that are now starting to default. Plus paying out higher rates to attract new money is another problem. This mess seems bigger then anyone admits at this point. I think history is being made.
People have always been maxed out on credit. Sorry but I'm sick of catering to those who are irresponsible and can't control their spending. As I've said before unless you've fallen on hard times (medical, divorce etc) I have no sympathy that they ran up their credit cards going to Starbucks, new phones, etc and all the other "wants" not needs. Everyone is mad about bailing out banks with taxpayer money yet we continue to do this (bankruptcies) for those who are reckless with their money.

In a lot of the cases they're not even broke, there's just way to many loopholes to get around this. Just like this whole student loan forgiveness BS. I have friends and customers telling me they know people who are making 6+ figures who aren't paying their loans waiting for this to pass. As far as people defaulting on their car loans, my feeling is the same as when the housing crashed. You bought more than you could afford so deal with it. Yes prices are high (and were high then) but that doesn't mean you had to buy a new $60K vehicle. Buy something used to get buy for now then wait until things settle down and then buy new. We've seen these cycles before and it takes time for the market to adjust. With 15+ years of free (0% Fed fund) money this is going to take many years not months.

The Fed will know what to do next week once this weeks smoke clears. Sure a few more banks might crash this week but if we don't have a catastrophic week like we did in Sept. of '08 they need to continue with their increases. Maybe another .25 instead of .50 but inflations isn't going away anytime soon.
 

AzScorpion

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it may become a very large mess if a recession/depression hits , the debt ratio to gdp was 124% in 2022, servicing the national debt becomes more expensive as interest rates rise, more than 12% of gov spending goes to this and is on the rise, recession means less $$ coming into the fed government, many yrs of bad fiscal mismanagement, this goes way back to the Reagan admin selling the public on "deficits don't matter" well for yrs gov spending accounts for an increasingly bigger share of the gdp and a lot of that is funded by borrowing - relatively cheap when interest rates were low and interest rates were kept low by fed monetary policies, it will be difficult to avoid a full blown recession if interest rates keep rising.
That's one thing they (the Fed) needs to be careful of is creating a depression. They waited way to long to start raising rates and now they're in a bind. Raise them to high and to fast and they'll created another '08 scenario, but they still need to go higher. Don't raise them enough and we continue to have high inflation and as we can see all these rate hikes have done very little to bring inflation down. Why these fools still have a job is beyond me! ?‍♂ Interest rates of 6-7% are not uncommon and won't be the end of the world but it'll take time for those who aren't use it them to adjust. Whats sad is everything is WAY to political and it just washes, rinses and repeats when the next administration comes in.?
 

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People have always been maxed out on credit. Sorry but I'm sick of catering to those who are irresponsible and can't control their spending. As I've said before unless you've fallen on hard times (medical, divorce etc) I have no sympathy that they ran up their credit cards going to Starbucks, new phones, etc and all the other "wants" not needs. Everyone is mad about bailing out banks with taxpayer money yet we continue to do this (bankruptcies) for those who are reckless with their money.

In a lot of the cases they're not even broke, there's just way to many loopholes to get around this. Just like this whole student loan forgiveness BS. I have friends and customers telling me they know people who are making 6+ figures who aren't paying their loans waiting for this to pass. As far as people defaulting on their car loans, my feeling is the same as when the housing crashed. You bought more than you could afford so deal with it. Yes prices are high (and were high then) but that doesn't mean you had to buy a new $60K vehicle. Buy something used to get buy for now then wait until things settle down and then buy new. We've seen these cycles before and it takes time for the market to adjust. With 15+ years of free (0% Fed fund) money this is going to take many years not months.

The Fed will know what to do next week once this weeks smoke clears. Sure a few more banks might crash this week but if we don't have a catastrophic week like we did in Sept. of '08 they need to continue with their increases. Maybe another .25 instead of .50 but inflations isn't going away anytime soon.
I don't disagree with the general sentiment but challenge the assumption that the fed knows what to do... The fed is telling us we are not in a recession... The fed was saying it's transitory inflation... At what point do you think this fed has a grasp on the issues. When politics are guiding decision making processes.

However, even past poor fed decisions have shown in time all problems seem to settle and resolve themselves to a new normal. Financial literacy is something missing in our society... but it hasn't been there for some time.

Greed seems to overcome reason. Banks make bad loans because they think they can make money...people want more then they should allocate for ask for loans they can afford today but not tomorrow... People do not plan on things in worst case but in best case... Allocation and usage of resources in society is a part of society's core values. Alot more needs to change than saying the fed will fix it.
 


AzScorpion

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I don't disagree with the general sentiment but challenge the assumption that the fed knows what to do... The fed is telling us we are not in a recession... The fed was saying it's transitory inflation... At what point do you think this fed has a grasp on the issues. When politics are guiding decision making processes.

However, even past poor fed decisions have shown in time all problems seem to settle and resolve themselves to a new normal. Financial literacy is something missing in our society... but it hasn't been there for some time.

Greed seems to overcome reason. Banks make bad loans because they think they can make money...people want more then they should allocate for ask for loans they can afford today but not tomorrow... People do not plan on things in worst case but in best case... Allocation and usage of resources in society is a part of society's core values. Alot more needs to change than saying the fed will fix it.
Oh I don't for one minute think the Fed knows what to do. IF they did this would've never happened and they would've/should've starting raising rates years ago. Even Janet Yellen said something like "I messed up and didn't see this coming" a year ago. Yet she still has a job! The Fed (whether some want to believe it or not) has to many political ties and needs to be abolished. IF they were so good at their job we wouldn't be in this mess right now or on the past.
 

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However, even past poor fed decisions have shown in time all problems seem to settle and resolve themselves to a new normal. Financial literacy is something missing in our society... but it hasn't been there for some time.
Trying not to get political but it's predictable that politicians will seize the day and proclaim that more tax cuts will fix the problems - another patch that has proven to yield only short term relief. Agree with Dave the country as a whole has been living beyond it's means, enabled by increasing levels of borrowing, the debt is a result of wars, ill advised tax cuts, stimulus funding, bailouts and in general out of control federal spending. Economists who warned about the debt levels decades back were scorned same as politicians who warned fed debt posed a risk to national security .

All this can only be really cured by belt tightening, return to sound fiscal policies and pain as it will impact the standard of living for many.

But people will vote for whoever steps up and promises to "fix" the problem without any degree of pain - that is no longer possible.

sorry if this comes across as pessimistic but voodoo economics just don't work.
 
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So, they bailed out the banking system again!

Either they don't know what their doing or just plain lying to us.
& people wonder why there are conspiracy theories.

From 2017:
Here's a flashback hoot of the day. On June 27, 2017 then Fed Chair Janet Yellen said she expects "No New Financial Crisis in Our Lifetimes"

“Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis?” Yellen said at a question-and-answer event in London.
“You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will be,” she said.
 

AzScorpion

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So, they bailed out the banking system again!

Either they don't know what their doing or just plain lying to us.
& people wonder why there are conspiracy theories.

From 2017:
Here's a flashback hoot of the day. On June 27, 2017 then Fed Chair Janet Yellen said she expects "No New Financial Crisis in Our Lifetimes"
She's an idiot and shouldn't be in control of a lemonade stand!

Are they really conspiracy theories or are they right but it just takes time to see the truth? ?
 

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So, they bailed out the banking system again!

Either they don't know what their doing or just plain lying to us.
& people wonder why there are conspiracy theories.

From 2017:
Here's a flashback hoot of the day. On June 27, 2017 then Fed Chair Janet Yellen said she expects "No New Financial Crisis in Our Lifetimes"
Quite honestly, I don't think that was a totally unreasonable statement. But just like when you "idiot proof" something, you get a bigger idiot. In the banking world, greed is an incredibly powerful motivator and so the safeguards that have been put in place people eventually figure out how to get around and you get stuff like this. Rinse and repeat.

It is telling that there are some banks that never suffered from these things. They are banks that typically are what would be considered "conservative" however the principles they adhere to are time tested rules for solvency.
 

AzScorpion

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Another huge problem is the market manipulation that's been going on. In all actuality the market should've opened up 500+ points down yet it was up 200+. ?‍♂ There's to much money at stake and these traders are just kicking the can down the road and trying to avoid the inevitable. This is going to make things so much worse than if they just let things happen naturally. We've technically been in a recession since last spring and if they just called it one like they've done in the past we'd most likely be on our way up now.

Tomorrows CPI numbers will be a telling sign. I wouldn't shock me if it was 7%. I think and hope the Fed raises rates again and from what they've been saying they're serious (this is my serious face?) this time.:rolleyes:

Here's the latest speculation of what they think will happen.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fe...t-pricing-banks-crisis-bdf36246?siteid=yhoof2

Last week, following two days of Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell—when the central banker implied rates will go higher for longer—the chance of a 50 basis-points rate hike in March topped 75%. By Monday, market pricing indicated a 0% chance the Fed will hike rates by that much. Expectations are now that rates will be increased by a smaller 25 basis points, or one-quarter of a percentage point, as they were in February, which itself marked a step down from much larger hikes last year.

The Fed has been adamant that it remains committed to bringing inflation under control with higher rates, and a red-hot CPI print could test expectations that the central bank’s aggressiveness has been tempered by the crisis in the banking sector.
 
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I really don't know what to think anymore.
Rob, I'm sorry but her statement was totally off. With the moral
hazard of QE & all the debt we have now, it's impossible not to have issues, big issues.

Anyway, 7 pages, lots of good insight/comments.
I think were in for a world of hurt soon.
It's all good till something breaks, well, something broke.
 

AzScorpion

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I really don't know what to think anymore.
Rob, I'm sorry but her statement was totally off. With the moral
hazard of QE & all the debt we have now, it's impossible not to have issues, big issues.

Anyway, 7 pages, lots of good insight/comments.
I think were in for a world of hurt soon.
It's all good till something breaks, well, something broke.
I think what's really BS is the Fed helping these banks out again. So you're going to let banks recklessly invest then reward them with another bailout? While this is a plus for thier customers it does nothing to punish the banks. You're right something is broke...our whole system!

https://www.thestreet.com/technolog...r-money-regulators-say?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

"Today we are taking decisive actions to protect the U.S. economy by strengthening public confidence in our banking system. This step will ensure that the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles of protecting deposits and providing access to credit to households and businesses in a manner that promotes strong and sustainable economic growth," read the joint statement.

"Depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13," the three regulators said.

The Fed will create a new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), whose purpose will be to safeguard institutions impacted by the collapse of SVB.

This facility will provide loans, of up to one year in length, to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions, pledging U.S. Treasuries, agency debt, mortgage-backed securities and other qualifying assets as collateral, the Fed said in a separate statement.

These assets will be valued at par, which means at their original value regardless of the evolution of interest rates, the rise of which in recent months has reduced the value of long-term bonds purchased when rates were low.

"This action will bolster the capacity of the banking system to safeguard deposits and ensure the ongoing provision of money and credit to the economy," the regulator said, adding that it is "prepared to address any liquidity pressures that may arise."

The Treasury will also make available up to $25 billion from the Exchange Stabilization Fund as a backstop for the facility program. But the Fed said it does not anticipate that it will be necessary to draw on these backstop funds.
 

dtech

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Another huge problem is the market manipulation that's been going on. In all actuality the market should've opened up 500+ points down yet it was up 200+. ?‍♂ There's to much money at stake and these traders are just kicking the can down the road and trying to avoid the inevitable. This is going to make things so much worse than if they just let things happen naturally. We've technically been in a recession since last spring and if they just called it one like they've done in the past we'd most likely be on our way up now.

Tomorrows CPI numbers will be a telling sign. I wouldn't shock me if it was 7%. I think and hope the Fed raises rates again and from what they've been saying they're serious (this is my serious face?) this time.:rolleyes:

Here's the latest speculation of what they think will happen.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fe...t-pricing-banks-crisis-bdf36246?siteid=yhoof2
just a personal opinion but I think it may be prudent for the Fed to pause another rate hike this qtr and see what happens, there is some downward pressure on prices, simply because people are increasingly tapped out in either savings or credit , the supply chain has gotten healthier but companies are reluctant to drop prices - most are still very profitable as consumers thus far haven't markedly changed their spending.

Would hope this banking incident serves as a red flag for the country to come to grips with its true financial status - overly burdened with debt and decades of overspending - but it won't, the house of cards will continue to rise until it collapses.
 

AzScorpion

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just a personal opinion but I think it may be prudent for the Fed to pause another rate hike this qtr and see what happens, there is some downward pressure on prices, simply because people are increasingly tapped out in either savings or credit , the supply chain has gotten healthier but companies are reluctant to drop prices - most are still very profitable as consumers thus far haven't markedly changed their spending.

Would hope this banking incident serves as a red flag for the country to come to grips with its true financial status - overly burdened with debt and decades of overspending - but it won't, the house of cards will continue to rise until it collapses.
I see where you're coming from but peoples personal debt is (mostly) their own fault. Most live WAY beyond their means and have a hard time defining wants and needs. My ex was a classic example. She always would say "I deserve" this or that which most times were something materialistic and expensive. Which was why she was thousands in debt with cc and always behind on her bills. Heck look at todays stock market. By all rights it should be in the red but it's not. Why, people people love bailouts! ?‍♂

I might sound heartless but I'm sick of watching people get bailed out, and propped up for doing the wrong thing. We get the ? end every time this happens. The Fed needs to stick to their plan and continue to raise rates otherwise inflation will continue to run rampant. But tomorrow will be the tell tail sign when the CPI numbers come in.
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